The oil rich Venezuela started to be crashed upon by economic and political turmoil since 2014. Though it seems to be an issue with effects exclusively on the internal economic, political and demographic trajectory, the reality beneath the surface has proven it to be of spillover effect on a myriad of issues pertaining to different domains both inside and beyond the whole Latin American region.
The major adverse consequence of the turmoil in Venezuela faced by the region is the Venezuelan exodus that began in 2014, which now is the fastest growing displacement of people across borders in the Latin American history. As of the early 2018 there are 1.6- 4million Venezuelan refugees abroad.
Although the Syrian refugee crisis or the Rohingyan refugee crisis might have gained much attention in the world politics, the Venezuelan influx to the neighboring states merits a similar consciousness from the international actors, owing to the geo-economic vitality of the oil rich anti- American country located in a highly volatile region with increasing records on organized crimes and terrorist activities.
The tumult began when the Opposition and thousands of citizens protested the growing authoritarian regime of the President Nicholas Maduro. The Supreme Court overtook the National Assembly where the government did not have the majority, making all its decisions null and void. This was as a retaliation to the Opposition’s accusations on the Court suspending the elections of four legislators. The Maduro regime consolidated the President’s power, replacing the legislature with a constituent assembly entirely comprised of the government supporters. This is only one of many constitutional violations by the Maduro regime. The Supreme Court has also blocked a constitutionally stipulated recall for a referendum against the President and has ordered postponing elections.
The opposition accuses Maduro of being an authoritarian ruler, wanting him to resign, while the Maduro regime retorts that the opposition is conspiring with foreign entities, particularly the United States (USA) to destabilize the country.
The destabilization of the country was a result of the mutually reinforcing elements of both poor state governance and the economic policies. Government mismanagement of the economy led to a runaway inflation and shortages of basic goods and healthcare facilities which were the prime causes for the Venezuelan exodus. As for 2018 April, 80% of the country was in abject poverty. Lack of food, medicines, basic social services, widespread violence, corruption and human right violations are major misfortunes faced by the Venezuelans on a daily basis.
Hyperinflation has stroke the Venezuelan economy in an unprecedented manner. The inflation rate reached 536.2% in 2017 as the Venezuelan bolivar was depreciated rapidly in the black market. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) it hit to a rate of 2 068.5% by 2018. The food shortage is becoming severe as the prices may change in a matter of days and the unavailability of medicine and equipment in government hospitals are rising. As per the Venezuelan Pharmaceutical Federation, 85% of the basic medicines are not available. Infant mortality and the maternal mortality has been risen respectively by 30% and 65% by 2016. Aggravating the issue, the crime rate is astronomical causing a major risk of dispersing into the region which already tops the world in organized and transitional crimes.
To control the hyperinflation Maduro has launched new economic policy in which he introduced the Venezuelan own Crypto currency; the Petro to circumvent the US sanctions. However, the government policies with expropriations, price controls, currency controls, corruption and mismanagement in government enterprises have been so grave that the economists are skeptical on the new economic policy being of any promising prospective for the country.
The want of economic and political stability and the sheer shortage of basic human needs has resulted in the Venezuelan exodus in the neighboring countries like Colombia, Brazil, Peru, Ecuador and even the nearby Caribbean islands. This displacement crisis which, William Spindler, the spokesman of the UNHCR calls “one of Latin America’s largest mass population movements in history” has stirred not only the internal stability of Venezuela and that of its neighboring countries, but also has started having alarming effects on the regional stability as extra-regional powers have started meddling in the internal affairs of the states in the region.
The effects range from micro level tensions between the Venezuelan refugees and the citizens of the neighboring states they flee to, to macro level tensions among the USA, China, Russia and other neighboring countries; particularly Colombia, Argentina, Brazil and the pro- Maduro Ecuador. The exodus is causing multitude of adverse effects on the neighboring countries. Their economies are now to handle these refugees who also compete with the citizens of these countries in the job market. Though the governments of these states have come up with a mosaic of policy reactions, domestic pressure to limit the Venezuelan exodus is mounting. 56% of the Venezuelans in Brazil and 33% in Colombia are unemployed. Now the politics of the region has been characterized by inertia towards the Venezuelan free-fall, though Colombia and Peru called for a regional cooperation to manage the crisis.
Along with the economic concentration and the political instability that the exodus brings about the region, the neighboring countries are also mostly threatened with the widespread transnational and organized crimes and terrorist activities by the young, unemployed and frustrated Venezuelan youth who migrates to these countries. This is most crucial in Colombia which just settled the 52 year old civil war. The influx of the young unemployed Venezuelans into the Colombian territory makes it easy to armed groups like EPL to recruit as combatants. This has disastrous repercussions on the implementation of the Colombian peace settlement. Venezuela being a strategic transit zone for drug trafficking, gasoline smuggling and human trafficking, this situation has highly adverse effects on the security of the entire region.
The menace of the Venezuelan crisis is not just due to the internal issues. The crisis has also led for the (unnecessary) involvement of extra regional powers, especially China and Russia in the region. China and Russia, seeking to reap the benefits of the disturbed Venezuela to ensure their access to the oil resources in the country, so that they can fortify their ‘oil security’ from the USA, loan money to the Maduro regime. This can be seen as a bad omen to the region, as is now evident with the ever rising Chinese influence in the South Asian region. Russia and China, being the pioneers of geo-economics in the contemporary world politics may aptly manipulate this crisis in the anti-US region to achieve their own political and economic motives.
What seems to be an internal chaos, once unveiled, opens up with diverse intricacies pertaining to different scope from political stability, regional stability, economic solidity, state security to human security. The Venezuelan exodus is no more an issue to be out-witted by the Syrian refugee crisis in Europe. Hence, regional cooperation, especially in the face of an increasing influence from extra- regional powers and an unsupportive Venezuelan government, is the need of the hour.