By Denis Korkodinov – Interview with Samer Ibrahim
The news of the liquidation of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in northwestern Syria overshadowed reports of the Turkish operation Source of Peace. Thus, Donald trump voluntarily or involuntarily slapped Recep Erdogan and Vladimir Putin. The President of the United States, through the assassination of the leader of the terrorists, seemed to inform his partners: “Look! While you are playing a children’s game in Syria, I really solved serious problems. You can stay and play in Syria, and I’m leaving.”
Especially for World Geostrategic Insights, we talked about this with Syrian political expert Samer Ebrahim.
1. The main topic that will be relevant for a long time is the elimination of the leader of the “Islamic state” Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi on October 28, 2019 in the Syrian province of Idlib. Against the backdrop of the withdrawal of American troops from northeastern Syria, which was the reason for criticism of Donald Trump, who actually betrayed his Kurdish allies, the assassination of Abu Bakr was very timely. This allowed the White House administration to neutralize the negative informational resonance caused by failures in the north-eastern direction of the SAR, and again draw attention to itself as the country that won ISIS. Is it really? Indeed, throughout the history of the Islamic State, Washington had many opportunities to eliminate Abu Bakr, but his death was constantly delayed, intending to make a show in the American interests on the assassination of the terrorist leader. And then the incident turned up: Donald Trump urgently needed to come up with something in order, firstly, to divert public attention from the shame that the United States suffered as a result of refusing to help the Kurds, and, secondly, to use the death of Abu Bakr as election campaign tool. So on the eve of the US presidential election, Donald Trump hopes to get the most support from American voters as a politician who defeated international terrorism. In this regard, what US military and political benefits can bring the death of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi?
– Information about the death of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi throughout the history of ISIS has appeared in the international press very often, in connection with which there are doubts about the fact that this time the leader of the terrorists was really killed. Perhaps this is a fake. At least, Donald Trump’s statement on the elimination of the leader of the “Islamic State” on October 28, 2019 by the forces of the American special forces unit contradicts the statements of Russian official sources, which claim that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed in May 2019 as a result of an air strike of the Russian air forces . In any case, the US president needed to announce such a military operation with the help of which he could create an image of a victor over terrorism.
This is a very good pretext for ending the US role in Syria. Now, no one can say that Donald Trump has betrayed his Kurdish allies. Thanks to the information about the assassination of the ISIS leader, Washington deliberately created the view that the withdrawal of American troops from northeastern Syria was in fact distracting maneuvers to secretly get to the refuge of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and destroy it. And, in addition, the United States did everything in order to form a belief that they were not betraying the Kurds. And the terrorist leader has been killed with the cooperation of the Kurds.
The death of Abu Bakr is considered by many observers as the end of the war in Syria, at least for the United States. Now Donald Trump can safely say that there is no need for a further American military presence in the SAR. In addition, the US president will definitely win an absolute victory during the election campaign, because, according to American voters, he has already gone down in history as a politician who eliminated the main source of international terrorism and, as a result, ended the war in Syria.
2. The elimination of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi does not solve the main problem of international security – the elimination of the “Islamic State”, which has not disappeared. Moreover, after the death of the leader of the ISIS group, he may receive an additional impetus for revival, which poses a threat to the global scale. For example, after the elimination of Osama bin Laden, al-Qaeda not only did not break up, but, on the contrary, intensified its terrorist attacks around the world. In this regard, how big is the risk that, after the assassination of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the Islamic State can organize a series of unprecedented terrorist attacks?
– Naturally, terrorist attacks will be carried out in different parts of the world with a high degree of risk, such as happened after the assassination of Osama bin Laden. Thus, according to the latest reports of American intelligence, many leaders of the Islamic State were transferred to Afghanistan, Iraq and North Africa, and therefore in these regions there is a high probability of a surge in terrorist activity. However, no one can determine the extent and gravity of such terrorist operations, and no one can determine their exact geography.
3. Many experts believe that Turkey intends to remain in Syria, at least until the end of the Syrian civil war. This will mean that after the operation “Source of Peace” is completed, Turkey will continue its military presence in the region in order to ensure the realization of its strategic interests. In addition, the main election slogan of Recep Erdogan, who intends to take part in the elections of 2023, is a victory in Syria. Therefore, the political future of the Turkish leader depends on conducting offensive operations in the Syrian theater of operations. Does this mean that Ankara will continue a series of its military operations in Syria?
– Of course, Turkey will continue to conduct its military operations until the threat of the separatist Kurdish militias is completely eliminated. Damascus, in turn, is also interested in the abolition of “YPG” – “PKK” and control over the territory where these armed groups operate. We are also interested in the Kurds transferring the heavy armament units of government troops or the Russian army.
It is worth noting that the CAA recently moved away from Turkish positions, which allowed the Turks to conclude an agreement with both Damascus and Moscow on the delimitation of spheres of influence. This is what Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed.
After the Syrian army takes complete control of northeastern Syria, there will be no attacks from Turkey. Of course, a military operation can continue for several months, but everyone understands that this is a necessary measure.
5. Turkey intends to prepare a request for Washington to extradite the commander in chief of the “Syrian Democratic Forces” (“SDF”) Mazlum Abdi. The reason for this was the fact that Mazlum Abdi was in the ranks of the Kurdistan Workers Party banned in Turkey and was an adviser to Abdullah Ocalan. Will the USA give Mazlum Abdi to Turkey? How likely is it that relations between Turkey and the US will become more complicated in the event of a refusal to extradite, as was the case in the case of refusal to extradite Fettulah Gulen? Is Mazlum Abdi an instrument of political bargaining between Donald Trump and Recep Erdogan?
– Washington will under no circumstances give Mazlum Abdi as well as Fettulah Gulen in order to maintain his democratic reputation in protecting political refugees. And Turkish-American relations are deteriorating due to the fact that Recep Erdogan got out from under the American “umbrella” and began to cooperate with Russia. Moscow is a strong guarantor and mediator between Syria and Turkey. Therefore, as Russian-Turkish relations develop, relations between Ankara and Washington will become more complicated. And this is completely unrelated to the issue of extradition of Mazlum Abdi or other persons.
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