By Yasir Masood
Balochistan, Pakistan’s largest province, borders Afghanistan, Iran, and the Arabian Sea and holds an estimated $1 trillion in untapped minerals. Yet, it faces poverty and poor infrastructure. Decades of inequitable resource extraction have deepened Balochistan’s marginalization.
While local feudal lords, politicians, corporations, and federal authorities profit from its minerals, communities face exclusion from economic benefits, fueling grievances exploited by militant groups like the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), which emerged in the early 2000s advocating for resource access and autonomy. The BLA is a militant nationalist group that the United States designates as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist organization.
Balochistan’s strategic location may outweigh its mineral resources. One such example is the Bolan Pass, a vital corridor that runs through the rugged mountains, connecting Quetta, the capital of Balochistan, with the rest of Pakistan. It has devolved into a conflict hotspot with 64 train attacks from 2005 to 2017, resulting in over 60 deaths. In November, a BLA suicide attack at the Quetta railway station killed 25 and injured more than 50.
Ambush Exposes Hybrid Tactics
On March 11, 2025, the BLA attempted to hijack the Jaffar Express, leading to 21 deaths and the killing of 31 militants during a 48-hour rescue operation. This unprecedented ambush contrasted with their usual hit-and-run tactics against security forces. The BLA stated that the hijacking was “a direct response to Pakistan’s decades-long colonial occupation of Balochistan and the relentless war crimes committed against the Baloch people.” The United Nations Security Council, however, “condemned in the strongest terms” what it called “the heinous and cowardly terrorist attack.”
“Hybrid warfare” combines conventional and irregular tactics, suicide bombings, gendered violence, disinformation campaigns, and cross-border coordination to destabilize states from within. During the Jaffar Express crisis, Indian media amplified false narratives to fuel public fear while Afghan handlers guided militants via satellite phones. This strategy aims to exploit Pakistan’s vulnerabilities and internationalize Balochistan’s conflict. A March 2025 attack in Balochistan’s Kalat district saw a female suicide bomber target a military convoy, killing one soldier and injuring four. Analysts attribute this to the BLA, citing its history of gendered violence, including Shari Baloch’s 2022 bombing at Karachi’s Confucius Institute. Such operations underscore the BLA’s reliance on external backing and hybrid tactics.
Escalating Terrorism and the Nexus of Militant Groups
Since 9/11, Pakistan has lost 67,000 lives to terrorism, with economic damages exceeding $126 billion. The Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 2025 reports a 45% spike in deaths (748 in 2023 to 1,081 in 2024), ranking Pakistan second globally. Terrorist attacks surged from 517 in 2023 to 1,099 in 2024, surpassing 1,000 incidents for the first time.
The BLA’s violence escalated from 116 attacks in 2023 to 504 in 2024, with fatalities rising from 88 to 388. The Quetta railway bombing marked 2024’s deadliest attack, signaling a shift to urban terrorism. Most casualties occurred in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region bordering Afghanistan.
The escalation of violence by the BLA coincided with the Taliban’s return to power in Kabul in 2021, which restored safe havens for groups like the U.S.-designated Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Known for its misogynistic and sectarian extremism, the TTP operates openly in Afghanistan with support from the Afghan Taliban and al-Qaeda. While the BLA dominates Balochistan, the TTP has reemerged as the deadliest militant group in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, with attacks increasing from 293 in 2023 to 482 in 2024, resulting in 558 deaths, a 91% rise in fatalities. This accounts for 52% of Pakistan’s terrorism-related casualties, solidifying the TTP’s status as the country’s most significant threat.
Over the past decade, the BLA has collaborated with the TTP to conduct coordinated attacks in Balochistan, with intelligence reports indicating a possible merger. While the BLA once espoused secular ideals, it has increasingly adopted sectarian tactics despite public denials. Both groups, however, align in their goal to dismantle Islamabad’s authority: the BLA frames the state as a colonial force, while the TTP condemns it as anti-Islamic. Their ideological differences fade against their shared objective of overthrowing Pakistan’s government.
The BLA, once rooted in secularism, now leans heavily on alliances that steer its activities toward sectarian violence, overshadowing its earlier ideological foundations. In 2021, authorities captured an ISIS-K commander linked to the Abbey Gate bombing in Afghanistan, an attack that killed 13 U.S. Marines and 160 Afghans. President Trump, in his March 4 speech to the U.S. Congress, publicly praised Pakistan’s cooperation in apprehending the suspect, calling him a “monster.”
Afghanistan-based terror groups like ISIS-K now threaten regional stability, with Pakistan among those in their crosshairs. ISIS-K’s January 2024 bombing in Kerman, Iran, left 100 dead. Months later, the group struck a Moscow concert hall, slaughtering 145 attendees. In Pakistan, the BLA escalated tensions by hijacking a passenger train, while the Taliban stoked fears with a $500,000 bounty on a progressive Pashtun leader’s life. An Afghan deputy interior minister mockingly dismissed the bounty, claiming the Taliban could “get it done for 500 rupees” (under $2).
Counterterrorism Failures and Regional Complicity
Pakistan’s counterterrorism efforts remain hobbled by flawed policies. Despite hosting 4 million Afghan refugees, it struggles to dismantle TTP sanctuaries. A 2024 UN report confirms the Taliban shelters 6,000–6,500 TTP militants, a concern echoed by Ambassador Munir Akram at the UNSC, where he accused Kabul of harboring 20 terror groups. The TTP-BLA alliance, fueled by anti-CPEC sentiment, complicates Pakistan’s security landscape. India’s $3 billion Afghan investment since 2001 exacerbates Pakistan’s fears of encirclement as New Delhi exploits Baloch unrest to disrupt CPEC.
Hybrid Warfare Vis-à-vis CPEC
India’s proxy warfare in Balochistan, exposed by the 2016 capture of spy Kulbhushan Jadhav, fuels militant groups like the BLA through arms, disinformation, and sabotage of Chinese infrastructure, evident in coordinated attacks such as the Jaffar Express ambush. Guided by the Ajit Doval Doctrine, India’s blueprint leverages consulates near Pakistan’s border to destabilize CPEC, viewing it as a threat to regional influence. By arming BLA factions and targeting Chinese projects, New Delhi aims to fracture Pakistan’s economy and globalize the Baloch conflict despite denying involvement.
As US-India ties strengthen through the Quad Alliance to counter China, Pakistan faces diplomatic isolation. Yet, Beijing remains vital for CPEC, while Iran’s skepticism toward the Taliban provides Islamabad leverage. Strategically located between Central Asia and the Middle East, Pakistan retains geopolitical significance.
Balochistan exemplifies hybrid warfare, where resource exploitation and ethnic divisions intersect with a fusion of internal violence and external manipulation obscured in mainstream narratives. Unlike conventional insurgencies, its instability is engineered by local and national political entrepreneurs who stoke chaos for personal or ideological gain while covertly collaborating with foreign powers. The CPEC, threatened by U.S.-China competition, India’s hostility, Iran’s strategic maneuvering, and Afghanistan’s proxy wars, has become a breeding ground for franchised militant groups like the BLA, TTP, and ISIS K. This orchestrated turmoil sustains Balochistan’s crisis, masking the symbiosis between domestic opportunists and external agendas.
At the heart of this hybrid war lies CPEC, a project that could redefine Pakistan’s future. BLA attacks on CPEC projects, such as the 2022 Confucius Institute bombing and the Jaffar Express ambush, expose vulnerabilities in Pakistan’s crown jewel. Hybrid warfare aims to deter Chinese investment by portraying CPEC as a ‘neo-colonial’ venture. Faced with existential threats, Pakistan launched Operation Azm-i-Istehkam (Resolve for Stability) in June 2024 against TTP bases in Afghanistan, but Kabul has rejected Islamabad’s requests for assistance. Acknowledging shifting security dynamics, DG ISPR stated that the attack redefined Pakistan’s defense posture, necessitating an offensive strategy.
Afghanistan, now a transnational terrorism hub, anchors this network, linking groups such as Al Qaeda and ISIS-K to regional chaos with global spillover potential. To counter this, the Taliban must dismantle terror ecosystems, form an inclusive government, and end gender apartheid. Internationally, exposing hybrid warfare mechanics, CPEC rivalries, and proxy networks is crucial. Policymakers must treat the region not as Pakistan’s internal issue but as a frontline in a global security threat. The aim is to lock Pakistan in a geopolitical and geostrategic realm reminiscent of the Cold War and post-9/11 eras, denying it the stability needed to realize CPEC’s geoeconomic potential. Distracted by hybrid warfare, a perpetually destabilized Pakistan cannot evolve into an economic corridor linking Asia to global markets, further hindering its rise as a geoeconomic reality.
Why Bullets Alone Can’t Fix Balochistan
Military action alone is insufficient. Operations like Azm-i-Istehkam falter by ignoring systemic rot: patronage networks hoarding Balochistan’s wealth, absent political autonomy, and governance failures like NACTA’s inefficacy. Bullets deepen alienation, pushing youth toward militancy, yet decisive action remains absent. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s reluctance to convene the National Security Committee exposes leadership gaps amid apathy toward human and strategic costs. Without addressing economic marginalization and political disenfranchisement, Balochistan’s youth remain trapped in terror recruitment cycles.
The Jaffar Express bombing epitomizes this crisis, reflecting unfulfilled promises amid foreign interference. Addressing Balochistan’s challenges demands structural reforms: equitable distribution of mineral wealth, dismantling patronage networks and granting political autonomy. Closing the state-society gap requires prioritizing grassroots economic and educational initiatives over militarization.
Externally, Islamabad must counter adversarial interference, particularly India’s exploitation of Baloch grievances to sabotage CPEC, through diplomatic engagement with Kabul and Tehran to curb cross-border militancy. International partnerships can help mitigate strategic encirclement. Without these steps, Balochistan risks fragmentation, leaving its future contingent on leaders embracing reform or perpetuating hybrid warfare.
Author: Dr. Yasir Masood – Distinguished Beijing-based Pakistani political and security analyst, academic, and broadcast journalist, with expertise in strategic communication. He holds a PhD in International Relations from the University of International Business and Economics (UIBE), Beijing, specialising in the Balochistan conflict. His focus areas include the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Indo-Pacific and South Asian geopolitics, China-US relations, and Chinese foreign policy. He regularly provides in-depth analysis on international relations to leading global media outlets and think tanks.
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).
Image Credit: AFP