By Ejaz Karim
Since the Cold War, a profound transformation in global politics has transpired during President Trump’s administration. His ‘America First’ policy, characterized by diplomatic withdrawal, economic protectionism, and skepticism towards multilateralism, eroded established alliances and diminished America’s status as a global leader.
Under President Trump’s administration, the United States is prioritizing narrow nationalism over international cooperation, as evidenced by the withdrawal from the World Health Organization (WHO), the Paris Climate Accord, and closure of USAID, the United States Agency for International Development.
On the other hand, China seized the opportunity to position itself as a global leader and promote global development, economic diplomacy, and multilateralism. Beijing has substantially augmented its economic and geopolitical influence in recent years. China may occupy the gap created by America’s exit from international agreements and multilateralism via the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), climate commitments, and strategic partnerships with developing nations.
Beijing is pursuing influence via soft power mechanisms such as trade agreements, development loans, infrastructure investments, cultural initiatives, and educational exchanges. On the contrary, the United States has historically emphasized military alliances and economic sanctions.
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China’s most ambitious worldwide investment endeavor, was launched in 2013 and encompasses over 150 countries, funding infrastructure projects including ports, roadways, trains, and energy systems. Chinese-constructed initiatives have benefited several nations in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, reinforcing Beijing’s economic dominance in these regions. Despite critics arguing that elevated interest rates and unclear loan conditions may ensnare developing nations in prolonged dependency, China’s loans attract these countries due to their generally fewer restrictions than those imposed by the IMF or World Bank.
During the COVID-19 epidemic, China used its ‘Health Silk Road’ initiative to distribute millions of vaccination doses worldwide. Despite skepticism regarding the vaccine’s efficacy among certain recipients, China’s swift response strengthened relationships with nations in Asia, Africa, and Latin America—many of which received no direct support from the U.S. throughout the crisis. China has enhanced its standing as a benevolent economic partner by providing debt relief to struggling economies such as Ethiopia, Zambia, and Pakistan.
When asked about the U.S exit from WHO, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun emphasized the agency’s “central and coordinating role in global health governance.” He added that, “China will, as always, support the WHO in fulfilling its responsibilities, deepening international cooperation in public health, strengthening global health governance and promoting the building of a community of human health”.
Secondly, climate diplomacy is China’s most persuasive assertion of global leadership. Following Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and retracting U.S. environmental regulations, China promptly endeavored to fill the leadership void.
China has significantly contributed to global decarbonization efforts, being the foremost producer of solar panels, wind turbines, and lithium-ion batteries. China has reinforced its dedication to sustainability by augmenting green energy investments in developing countries via the Belt and Road Initiative. China has pledged to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, signifying long-term environmental objectives while being the largest carbon emitter globally. Nonetheless, given China’s continuous investment in coal-powered energy initiatives, skepticism remains over the authenticity of these commitments.
Chinese Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Guo Jia kun reiterated China’s concern about the U.S. withdrawing from the Paris Agreement. He said that “Climate change is a common challenge facing all mankind… “China’s determination and actions to actively respond to climate change are consistent.” He added.
Moreover, the burgeoning strategic cooperation between China and Russia is a significant facet of its rise. The Xi-Putin alliance has recently strengthened due to their mutual antagonism to Western hegemony. The video meeting between Xi and Putin, occurring within hours after Trump’s inauguration, signaled a coordinated challenge to the U.S.-led global order.
Their collaboration establishes the foundation of an emerging China-Russia bloc, encompassing energy agreements, joint military drills, and diplomatic support. Both nations reject the liberal international system led by the United States and advocate for a multipolar world order.
China’s economic objectives include achieving global leadership in technology. Beijing seeks to dominate critical areas such as telecommunications, semiconductor production, and artificial intelligence via its ‘Made in China 2025’ initiative.
China’s technological advancement is spearheaded by Huawei and Alibaba, challenging Western dominance in critical sectors. Beijing’s strategic focus on innovation and digital infrastructure is evident in the advancement of 5G networks and government-funded quantum computing research. Despite the United States’ attempts to impede China’s technological progress, China’s ongoing investments, despite trade restrictions and penalties, demonstrate its dedication to leading the fourth industrial revolution.
China’s growing participation in international organizations signifies its expanding power. China boosted its engagement with the World Trade Organization (WTO), World Health Organization (WHO), and United Nations (UN), while the Trump administration has withdrawn from international organizations.
Beijing has contested Western-dominated frameworks and advocates for alternative governance models. China’s status as a significant global financial power has been further reinforced by the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), a China-led alternative to the World Bank. Beijing’s enduring objective of reshaping the global order, to align with its interests, is underscored by its diplomatic strategy.
Moreover, China’s Arctic expansion signifies a substantial shift in geopolitics. Beijing has declared itself a ‘near-Arctic state’. It has invested in infrastructure projects in Greenland and Russia, prompted by the emergence of new trade routes resulting from melting ice caps. China has strategically prioritized the Arctic to dominate vital transportation routes and exploit untapped resources. The increasing influence of China in the region continues to alarm the United States and its allies, who perceive it as advancing Beijing’s broader geopolitical objectives.
A retreat of the Trump administration from global leadership may allow China to increase its influence through multilateral cooperation, economic diplomacy, climate commitment and technological investments.
While it remains uncertain whether the United States can regain its leadership status, Beijing is currently betting that actions have a greater impact than rhetoric, regardless of its deliberations. China’s rise to dominance, as a preeminent global force, appears increasingly secure as the world realigns its alliances and partnerships.
Author: Ejaz Karim – Postdoctoral fellow at Yunnan Minzu University, China.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).