By Mirza Abdul Aleem Baig

    India’s rise in global politics, driven by technological advancements, military growth, and strategic aspirations, is reshaping the regional landscape and posing significant challenges for its neighbors, particularly Pakistan and China. With India’s rapid development as a dominant power, both countries face heightened security and economic considerations as they adapt to India’s expanding influence.

    Mirza Abdul Aleem Baig

    A key aspect of India’s growth is its initiative to establish a semiconductor fabrication plant in Uttar Pradesh. With projected investments of $340 million in direct investment and approximately $1 billion in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), this plant is set to cut India’s annual semiconductor import costs, currently standing at $28.7 billion, and advance its self-reliance in defense technology. By producing essential components domestically for critical systems, including missiles, radars, drones, and military communications, India strengthens its technological capabilities while reducing dependence on foreign manufacturing. This development not only boosts India’s regional standing but also introduces new competitive pressures for both Pakistan and China, who must account for India’s growing independence and influence in high-tech and defense sectors.

    India’s military modernization, including its role in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) underscores its positioning as a counterweight to China in the Asia-Pacific. India’s defense budget has surged to INR 6.21 lakh crore ($75 billion), with increased funding for advanced weaponry, border infrastructure, and domestic defense manufacturing, signaling its ambition to emerge as a global military-industrial power. This rapid expansion is particularly concerning for Pakistan, which has historically maintained a balance with India through nuclear deterrence. India’s acquisition and continued supply of advanced defense technologies disrupts this delicate balance, forcing Pakistan to reconsider its defense posture. Islamabad’s reliance on nuclear deterrence as a security measure may no longer be sufficient as India’s conventional military capabilities strengthen, potentially leaving Pakistan vulnerable and pressuring it to pursue costlier military advancements to preserve stability.

    China, too, faces challenges from India’s growing influence. India’s active involvement in the Quad is perceived as a strategic maneuver to counterbalance China’s presence in the Asia-Pacific, which complicates China’s own regional objectives. As India expands its partnerships with countries in the Asia-Pacific, including joint military exercises with nations like Australia and Japan, China faces a strategic realignment that pressures its influence and requires it to account for a stronger, more regionally engaged India. The expansion of Indian naval bases in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, enhancing India’s ability to monitor key maritime routes, further complicates China’s objectives by placing India in a critical position over routes vital to China’s trade and security.

    India’s active participation in multilateral organizations like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) further signals its ambitions to assert influence on the global stage, challenging China’s own standing within these groups. India’s engagement in these organizations allows it to collaborate on economic and security issues with other emerging powers, including Russia, while seeking to assert its independence from Western alliances. This diversified approach strengthens India’s position in global governance, potentially creating friction with China over conflicting interests in international policies and strategies.

    Pakistan faces heightened security concerns from India’s military modernization and expanded regional influence. India’s increased defense spending includes funding for advanced border infrastructure and domestic procurement, with a focus on areas like Kashmir and defense infrastructure near the Pakistan border. Pakistan’s limited defense resources and reliance on nuclear deterrence place it in a vulnerable position, with India’s conventional military buildup raising existential concerns regarding Pakistan’s border security and strategic defenses. The need to adapt to India’s expanding influence could press Pakistan to allocate more resources to its defense sector, potentially straining its economy and leading to further regional instability.

    In the Asia-Pacific, India’s establishment of new naval air stations in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands enhances its ability to monitor strategic maritime routes like the Malacca, Lombok, and Sunda Straits. This strategic expansion places India in a critical position over essential maritime passages, which could impact China’s access to these vital routes. Furthermore, India’s creation of an Asia-Pacific division within its Ministry of External Affairs aligns with its focus on strengthening alliances with IORA, ASEAN, and other regional organizations, positioning it as a growing power in China’s immediate sphere of influence.

    India’s assertive policies, especially concerning Kashmir and Afghanistan, further complicate regional dynamics. As India’s military capacity grows, it may adopt a more confident approach to these disputed regions, raising tensions and increasing the risk of conflict. For Pakistan, this escalation could mean a need to bolster its own defenses, which would further strain its resources. Meanwhile, China may be compelled to engage in balancing measures within the region to protect its strategic interests, especially in light of India’s infrastructure developments and defense collaborations with other Asia-Pacific countries.

    In short, India’s rise as a major power, marked by military expansion and technological self-reliance, creates both challenges and opportunities for the region. For Pakistan, India’s defense growth poses an existential challenge, with escalating pressure to match India’s conventional and strategic advancements. For China, India’s growing regional and multilateral influence introduces a new competitive dynamic in Asia, compelling China to reconsider its strategies and presence in the Asia-Pacific. India’s rise and the shifts it brings emphasize a more complex, multipolar regional order that both Pakistan and China must navigate carefully to preserve their own influence and security.

    Author: Mirza Abdul Aleem Baig –  An independent observer of global dynamics, the intricacies of geopolitics and the interplay between international relations, foreign policy and strategic alliances that are shaping the new world order.

    (The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).

    Image Credit; Russian Presidency

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