By Jalal Ud Din Kakar
The relationship between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban can be described as a tug of war in the prison of geography. Even if they don’t want to see eye to eye, geography forces their hand and compels them to interact.
Their proximity and shared borders bind them together, making it impossible to turn a blind eye to each other. However, both are walking a tightrope, weaving through decades of history, regional ambitions, and outright disorder. This is what sparks my motivation to dive into the Pak-Afghan-Taliban relations and the potential avenues of conflict and cooperation that spring up between the two actors.
The Origins of an Uneasy Symbiosis
In academic literature, Afghanistan is often referred to as the graveyard of empires. Alexander the Great embarked on his conquest from Macedonia but met his match in Afghanistan. During the 19th century, it served as a buffer zone between the Great Britain Empire in South Asia and the Russian Empire in Central Asia. Later on, Afghanistan also put a stop to the USSR’s expansionist objectives in 1989.
The roots of the relationship between Pakistan and the Taliban were forged in 1979, when Pakistan, along with the U.S., supplied every kind of weapon to bring down the USSR in Afghanistan. The Taliban’s rise to power in 1996 was a breath of fresh air for Pakistan. For decades, Pakistan has striven to carve out its strategic depth objectives in Afghanistan. This relationship deepened further as Pakistan seized the opportunity to sink India objectives in the Kabul River. With a strategic alliance in place, Pakistan navigated the turbulent waters of regional politics to counter India’s ambitions.
For the Afghans, the U.S. withdrawal in 2021 was seen as a bitter pill to swallow, illustrating the fall of a superpower that had run out of steam in Afghanistan. The U.S. packed up and left behind a nation grappling with the aftermath of decades of conflict. Later on, once the Taliban regained power in Afghanistan in 2021, they proceeded with caution, weighing the pros and cons like never before. The hopes of Pakistan were slipping through its fingers like sand, scattering with each passing day in the turbulent waters of uncertainty.
OPPORTUNITIES FOR COOPERATION – SHARED GOALS AMID PERSISTENT INSTABILITY
Counterterrorism Efforts: A Fragile Convergence of Interests
There lies a golden opportunity for both nations to team up on counterterrorism efforts. The greatest window of opportunity lies for the Taliban if they want to win the hearts of Pakistan by cracking down on the TTP. This opens the door for cooperation. After the U.S. withdrawal, most notorious TTP fighters were locked up, but following the Taliban’s resurgence, they were all set free. This attitude of the Taliban was not well-received. However, cracking down on the TTP is also in the Taliban’s interest to prove to the world that they will not allow their land to become a hotbed for terrorism, whether imported or exported.
This angle of cooperation, as well as the challenges, will be the defining factor in Pak-Afghan relations. The TTP’s resurgence against Pakistan has created discomfort. Meanwhile, the Afghan Taliban’s reluctance to actively clamp down on TTP activities reveals the fragile nature of their solidarity. Therefore, the lack of decisive action from the Afghan Taliban raises doubts about their prospects for regional peace and stability. This scenario underscores the thin ice on which Pak-Afghan relations stand. While opportunities for cooperation lie on the table, the challenges loom large.
Economic Integration: Trade Routes as Diplomacy and Dependence
Afghanistan is the only landlocked country in the region of South Asia. The Afghan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA) facilitates the flow of trade and gives Afghanistan access to international markets through the Arabian Sea. Afghanistan is located at the heart of Asia. It offers a gateway to Central Asia. In a win-win situation, the locations of both countries present opportunities to each other.
China will be investing around $400 billion in Iran over the span of 25 years. Under the Belt and Road Initiative, China is pouring in Pakistan more than $62 billion as of 2020. Chinese companies are setting up shop in Afghanistan, investing $5 billion in the largest copper mine located in Logar province, and another $5 billion in the Miss Aynak project. This is how China is spreading its tentacles of investment among its neighbors. Therefore, China is looking for interdependency and to create a chain of economic dependency to ward off conflicts.
By sinking money into these projects, China aims to cement ties with these nations. Their strategy is to weave a web of economic partnerships that binds them together. This approach helps to stave off potential conflicts and forge stronger alliances in the region and beyond.
Infrastructure Initiatives
The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline is a natural gas pipeline being developed by the Galkynysh-TAPI Pipeline Company, backed by the Asian Development Bank. In August 2024, the Foreign Minister of Turkmenistan, Rasit Meredow, sat down with Afghanistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and expressed that “Turkmenistan is ready to kick-start work on the TAPI project in Afghanistan with the aim of forging political and economic relations.”
For Pakistan, this cooperation stands on shaky ground, where trust is essential. Until now, Pakistan fears that its investments and aspirations could be thrown off course in Afghanistan due to political instability. The Taliban need to step up to the plate and prove they have the potential to restore peace and stability. They must live up to their promises and showcase their ability to bring order to a turbulent region.
PERSISTENT TENSIONS AND DIVERGENT AGENDAS – SOURCES OF CONFLICT
Cross-Border Militancy: The Fault Line of Mutual Distrust
The cross-border militancy is threatening the very fabric of socio-economic peace in the region. This militancy, coming from the TTP, an internationally blacklisted organization, is the first potential flashpoint of conflict that emerges between Pakistan and Kabul. The Afghan-Taliban has shrugged off the blame, telling Pakistan, “This is your internal matter, don’t pin it on us.”
The resurgence of the Afghan-Taliban has made the TTP more assertive against Pakistan. The TTP has targeted CPEC-related employees, which has raised the eyebrows of Pakistan. The most recent border clash reflects Pakistan’s discontent with the Taliban. Therefore, the TTP’s increased aggression has turned Pakistan’s western border into a flashpoint, leaving Islamabad questioning the Taliban’s commitment to stability. Pakistan has accused Afghanistan of meddling in its domestic stability and violating the Doha Agreement. However, the Afghan-Taliban has made it clear that they signed the Doha Agreement with the United States, not with Pakistan. This standoff has added fuel to the fire and the strained relations are hanging by a thread.
Regional Alliances: India’s Influence and Pakistan’s Strategic Quandary
India has been a far larger investor compared to Pakistan. Over the last two decades, $3 billion worth of Indian investment has poured into various projects — dams, roads, and trade infrastructure. The Taliban’s possible triumph threatens not just India’s diplomatic stakes in Afghanistan. However, the Taliban are trying to mend fences with India. The Afghan-Taliban are aware that Pakistan is already cash-strapped and it cannot offer anything except condolences.
The Taliban’s diplomatic outreach to India underscores a growing independence in their foreign policy. Pakistan’s objective of the strategic depth game in Afghanistan will be over. This strategic depth will be considered as washed away and thrown into the Mariana Trench of the Atlantic Ocean. If the Taliban act independently, then Pakistan will need to look for alternative strategies. This shift may force Pakistan to rethink its geopolitical chessboard in the region.
In conclusion, can Pakistan and the Taliban navigate these choppy waters to mutual benefit, or are they bound for an inevitable clash that will echo across South Asia? The future will provide the answer. How they overcome the barriers and turn obstacles into opportunities will determine their fate. However, it is time to bury the hatchet and let bygones be bygones. By setting aside all political differences, the light of hope and rays of peace are still there, waiting for both nations to usher in a new glimmer of peace. They need and must engage in constructive dialogue for the sake of regional stability.
Author: Jalal Ud Din Kakar – Research Fellow at the Center for Security Strategy and Policy Research) and PhD International Relations scholar at the School of Integrated Social Sciences, University of Lahore, Pakistan.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).
Image Source: The Kabul Times