By Denis Korkodinov
The main concern of Tehran, with reference to Syria, is that Bashar al-Assad loses its leverage over the state, which could strengthen the Iranian opposition against the Ayatollah regime.
Apparently, Tehran managed to get certain benefits from the “Arab spring”, aimed at replacing the political leaders of the countries of North Africa and the Middle East. Thus, thanks to the coup in Egypt, the Ayatollah regime was able to establish strong relations with Abdul-Fattah al-Sisi. As a result of the agreements reached, Iran ensured the unhindered passage of its warships through the Suez Canal. At the same time, Cairo and Tehran came to an agreement on diplomatic cooperation.
Meanwhile, the spread of an “Arab spring” to Damascus could pose a great threat to Iran, since the new Syrian president, who would replace Bashar al-Assad, is unlikely to maintain a privileged relationship with the Ayatollah regime. Moreover, the pro-Iranian force groups represented in Syria may be at risk. In this case, Tehran would lose one of the largest allies in the Middle East and Iran will be forced to make significant adjustments to its plans to create a Shiite agglomeration.
Damascus supported the Ayatollah regime during the Islamic Revolution. In addition, Damascus acts as a regional platform through which Tehran has the opportunity to take part in the Arab-Israeli confrontation, as well as liaise with Hezbollah Hamas groups and the Ansar Allah movement. For this reason, Syria currently plays the role of the “Achilles heel” of Iran: in the event of the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad, Tehran will receive an irreparable blow not only in Syria, but also in Lebanon, Palestine and Yemen.
At the same time, the strengthening of the positions of the Syrian Arab Army during the Turkish military campaign “Source of Peace” indicates that Bashar al-Assad is likely to be in power for a long time to come. Due to this, Tehran for some time may not be afraid of limiting its geopolitical opportunities in the region.
The calm in Damascus allows Iran to exert pressure on Israel and the United States, which are forced to take into account Iranian interests on almost all issues of the post-war future of Syria. This allows the Ayatollah’s regime to dictate its conditions related to ensuring not only its own security, but also the security of the Bashar al-Assad regime.
In turn, the Iranian opposition, along with representatives of the current government, also maintain close ties with Syria, including with armed groups that oppose Iran. For this reason, any social unrest in the territory of the SAR will have repercussion on the social mood within Iran. For this reason the Ayatollah’s regime is worried, believing that the protests in Syria, and the international forces supporting the demand for the resignation of Bashar al-Assad, may also appear in relation to the Iranian leadership.
Therefore, Tehran needs that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad strengthen his power, since Iran’s political future may depend on it.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)