“When a nuclear armed-armed country fights to the end, it will have consequences far beyond the borders. It will have consequences for the world”. These were the words that the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan, stated in his speech before the United Nations General Assembly. In his 55-minute speech, Prime Minister Khan brought the attention of the world to the events unfolding in Kashmir and how the two nuclear-states in South Asia, Pakistan and India are headed towards a collision course.
Kashmir is a territory that is disputed between both Pakistan and India. This dispute has resulted in a total of 3 wars being fought by both countries over the territory: in 1947, 1965 and 1999. Currently, the area is split into two regions: one administered by Pakistan, Pakistan Administered Kashmir (PAK) and the other administered by India, Indian Administered Kashmir (IAK), which controls roughly 65% of Kashmir. IAK is the only area under Indian administration that has a majority of Muslim population. The area of Kashmir is divided along a cease-fire line known by both sides as the Line of Control (LOC). It is believed to be the most militarized zone in the world right now.
While both Pakistan and India have tussled over Kashmir in various ways, both sides have maintained that the status of the region remains disputed as each claims to have a right over the entire region. However, a recent turn of events has shaken the relations between the two nuclear states and cast a serious question over the status of Kashmir.
On the 5th of August 2019, the Indian government removed the legal autonomy given to IAK under Article 370 of its constitution. By doing so, it took away the IAK’s own right to have a constitution, make its own laws, have its own flag, and other autonomous measures that were granted on the basis that it was a disputed region. By doing so, the Indian government has essentially spread its country’s jurisdiction over the disputed region and shown its intention to formally integrate IAK into India.
In order to understand the severity of this issue, the impact of removing Article 370 must fully be understood. For the first time in history, Indian citizens from other parts of the country are allowed to reside and buy property in IAK. Pakistan fears that this will result in an influx of Hindus into Kashmir with the sole intention of diluting the Muslim population and, for the first time in the region’s history, result in a Hindu-majority region. This will challenge Pakistan’s claim to the region, which maintains that all Muslim-majority regions of the subcontinent were to form part of Pakistan after the subcontinent gained independence from the British.
This will also allow India to have more representation of Hindus loyal to India in the region should a referendum be taken in the future to determine the status of the region. Pakistan has strongly called for a referendum to be conducted in which the people should be allowed to vote for which country they wish to join; it has always been confident that the people will choose to join its side if such an event happened. However, if Indians from other parts of the country settle in Kashmir and form part of the voting group, India will stand a stronger chance winning the referendum.
The result of removing Article 370 has had a terrible impact on the citizens of IAK. A week before taking such action, the Indian government deployed roughly 10,000 extra troops on the ground. In addition to that, the Indian government-imposed curfew on the region and a communications blackout that has resulted in cell phones, landlines and internet being completely blocked in the region. News of what is exactly is happening in the region has been difficult to verify.
Pakistan has been outraged by the decision taken by the Indian government. It has claimed India’s action to be illegal and rejects the inclusion of IAK into India. Furthermore, the Pakistani government has expressed concern over the treatment of citizens in IAK. In his speech before the UNGA, Prime Minister Khan claimed that once the curfew in Kashmir is lifted and citizens are allowed to return to normal life, they will revolt against the Indian government and it may result in a possible “bloodbath”. However, the Indian government denies any wrongdoing in the situation. It claims that the measures taken in IAK were for the safety of the people and that currently there is peace and order in the region.
This action taken by India has been the boldest step that has been taken by either country since the conclusion of the 3rd war in 1999. The repercussions are being speculated from all sides as there is no way to be sure of how this situation will be played out. However, there are three main paths that this situation is possible headed towards, and all three are discussed below.
The first possibility is that the decision of the Indian government is overturned by the country’s Supreme Court. The matter has already been challenged and is currently pending before the Supreme Court of India. Therefore, this whole matter may see an abrupt end if the Supreme Court deems that the government had no authority to change the constitution in the manner that it did. This possible outcome will result in positives for both India and Pakistan.
For India, the ruling political party will have gained favor in the eyes of the public for taking the initiative of attempting to integrate Kashmir with India while at the same time avoiding the consequences of that very action. Thus, it will be a political victory for the ruling party. For Pakistan, it will see its own steps taken as a success and claim responsibility in pressurizing India to withdraw such a decision and claim a diplomatic victory. This will also result in a political victory for Prime Minister Khan and his ruling party.
Another possible outcome is that both countries are headed towards a 4th war over the region. There is enough evidence to show that both sides are willing to go to war over the region and have the support of the masses in both countries to engage in such conflict. However, such a path seems to be unlikely. This is the first time the two neighbors would face off after attaining full nuclear capability and neither side would wish to risk a disaster. Furthermore, there will be international pressure from all around the world to avoid such an action, or otherwise risk international isolation, a possibility that neither of the country’s economy can afford.
The third and most likely outcome is that Pakistan takes the same action with PAK and both countries officially integrate their administered regions of the disputed area into their nation. The high likelihood of this possibility is not because both countries wish to see each other put this matter behind them, but that both countries wish to avoid a war that would cripple their economy and threaten their relations with other countries around the world. This is also likely to be a solution that other nations around the world will also encourage the two sides to pursue. Thus, Pakistan will claim PAK and India will claim IAK and the 70 years dispute over the territory may come to an end.
While the future of Kashmir remains uncertain, the limbo that the disputed area found itself in seems to be coming to an end. It will be in the best interest of the whole world that this matter is resolved peacefully and a nuclear war between the South Asian rivals is avoided.
Image Credit: Reuters