Part III of the Special Series for Global Peace and Security: a collaboration between WGI.WORLD (World Geostrategic Insights) and CGPS (Center for Global Peace and Security).
By Sunny Lee – Founder and President at CGPS (Center for Global Peace and Security), and Director at IKUPD (Institute for Korea-U.S. Political Development), Washington DC
A new cold war was fully triggered when Russia attacked Ukraine in 2022. The world is directly facing the distressing ghost of the Cold War, which has appeared and disappeared repeatedly for three decades. International society has been stunned by how quickly the ground has shifted in a short period of time, with the new Cold War growing at a frightening speed.
Such a dreadful protagonist of the Cold War has been reincarnated in the Ukrainian War. However, the symptoms of the new Cold War began as early as the early 2000s, when major communist countries revealed bellicose ambitions.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, which led to the end of the Cold War, the United States was an all-powerful superpower in international society. But after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack, the United States declined, and China and Russia surprisingly emerged to challenge the United States, reviving the confrontation between the communist bloc and the democratic world. In addition, North Korea caught the trend by declaring nuclear development and pursuing a strong alliance with Russia and China. They dared to provoke the new cold war against the United States.
North Korea’s nuclear enterprise kicked off the New Cold War, based on military support from Russia and China to demolish the preeminent power of the United States. North Korea has continued to launch missiles and conduct nuclear tests to intimidate international society. It has been 20 years since the United States focused on controlling North Korea’s nuclear provocations. Ironically, it also spurred the military alliance between the United States, Korea and Japan to end the new Cold War.
Meanwhile, the trade war between the U.S. and China has seriously aggravated the New Cold War, which has weakened the world economy. In addition, the worldwide symptoms of Covid-19 damaged the global economic system rapidly, and people became so frustrated that they became desperate. Most countries returned to nationalism to protect themselves, abandoning globalism. This shows that the new cold war is not only a military war, but also an economic war. China has become the biggest troublemaker more than Russia in the New Cold War.
However, the climax of the New Cold War exploded with the Ukraine War. It resurrected the Russia-China-North Korea alliance in the Cold War, although the outcome is not very promising for them as Russia’s victory is fading.
The Initiative of the New Cold War
The Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union lasted from 1947 to 1991. It gave the exciting moment of the space race to reach the moon and simultaneously the anxiety of nuclear bomb exercises.
A decade later, after the demise of the Communist bloc, the Cold War imposed itself in the global atmosphere with different colors, both as a multilateral concept and geopolitical significance. For example, the tensions between the United States and China, which pushed Russia apart, resulted in a steam in variable camps more than in the Cold War. The new Cold War is no longer cold, but hot as boiling water with drastic conflicts.
So why is the New Cold War between the United States and China so dangerous? In the first decade of the 21st century, China suddenly emerged as a powerful strategic rival of the United States, undermining Russia in the Cold War.
Communism is an economic system in which the government absolutely controls human life in general through dictatorship. It deprives people of human rights, freedom and wealth. Most communist countries have been punished with economic collapse and communism has been completely defeated as a fallacious ideology, so much so that former communist countries have abandoned this system of government and joined the democratic cause.
Nevertheless, three major countries still follow the path of communism to divide the world. Even after the end of the Cold War, they revived their ambitions, including military, thus starting the New Cold War.
With the war in Ukraine, we have fully entered the New Cold War. If it had not broken out, the world would still be in the twilight of the Cold War. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, North Korea’s military enterprise or China’s economic challenge could not be a monumental trigger to compete with the United States. But Russia’s attack on Ukraine certainly sets the world apart from the conventional concept of the Cold War.
First, it is the largest war since World War II. Russia reveals its imperialistic ambition toward Europe as a great challenge, a kind of autocracy versus democracy. Present-day Russia is essentially harking back to past communist ideology and tends to strengthen the autocratic bloc through war, weakening the democratic order in Europe.
Second, it is a clue to explore the stark comparison of the geopolitical power structure between the liberal democracy of the Western world and the authoritarian strength of the Russian alliance. Putin plots to expand his grip toward Eastern Europe to gain geopolitical interests.
Third, in reverse, it is the best chance for the United States to defeat Russia’s military ambitions.
The United States exploits the Ukraine war by leading NATO and the EU with multiple sanctions to neutralize Russia and strengthen its international position.
The Alliance between the United States, Korea and Japan
The appearance of the new Cold War has different conditions compared to the past one.
First, it is North Korea’s nuclear declaration in 2005. When the U.S. collapsed in speed after the 9/11 terror attack, North Korea began a bold venture with nuclear weapons to push international security into crisis. The world was shocked and major countries gathered in the Six Party Talks: the United States, Korea, Japan, Russia, China and North Korea. At that moment, the U.S.-Korea-Japan and Russia-China-North Korea pitted against each other started the new Cold War.
Second, it is the trade war between the United States and China in 2018. When the United States faced a severe economic recession and ran out of steam with the war of terrorism, China reached the pinnacle of economic development by surpassing the United States.
However, as soon as the economy recovered, Trump slapped China in the face by provoking a trade war. Like a political huckster, Trump has spent all national energy to block China not only in the economy, but also in military, industrial techniques and even inhumane government systems. Such a dogged policy has deteriorated the global economic environment, calling it a new cold war in the name of economics.
Third, it is the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. The world finally recognized the New Cold War as an inescapable symptom when Russia abruptly attacked Ukraine. International society woke up from a long-term peaceful environment in Europe and faced such criminal and inhumane scenes while speculating on how to defeat Russia to end the New Cold War.
During the New Cold War, which lasted over two decades, the alliance between the United States, Korea and Japan was strengthened whenever North Korea, China and Russia were in trouble and threatened global security.
Since taking office, Biden has particularly emphasized the triangular alliance between the United States, Korea and Japan to build a democratic headquarters to control China.
In contrast, China huddles with Russia and North Korea so that its influence based on high tensions spreads to the Indian Pacific Rim beyond the Korean Peninsula. The New Cold War is deepening in depth and breadth as time goes on. North Korea launched ICBM and KN23 immediately after Biden’s visit to Korea and Japan to confirm the strategic importance of the Korean Peninsula as the center of the New Cold War.
The United States strengthened its military and economic alliance with Korea and Japan for the purpose of geopolitical strategy, directly confronting Russia, China, and North Korea. The U.S. has operated its major military bases to maintain strategic advantages in Northeast Asia. As the headquarters of the Asia-Pacific military strategy, Korea and Japan should send troops to assist the United States as allies in case of military conflicts.
However, the United States would drag Korea and Japan not only into military conflicts, but also into economic interests to control the Asia-Pacific area. It is far beyond pressure on the imperialistic expansion of Russia, China and North Korea that the United States exploits the alliance.
For example, the AUKUS, the Quad and the Five EYES, as a global collective organization, critically aim to limit China by focusing on U.S. national interests. In a sense, such chauvinist strategy often proves to be a fatal factor, unable to defeat the New Cold War that has outraged China and strengthens the CSTO and SCO in denouncing the U.S. with a very aggressive attitude.
The Audacious Russia-China-North Korea Venture.
Russia, China and North Korea will never give up communist ideology, dictatorship or imperialist military expansion. When Russia collapsed because of the economic crisis, it opened its economy to the market and reformed its economic system, but it never really abandoned communist ideology. China also adapted the policy of market opening, but the communist dictatorship was strengthened. In addition, North Korea developed nuclear weapons despite the disaster of a national economic crisis that starved millions.
However, the fast track of the New Cold War runs at invisible speed after Russia attacked Ukraine in 2022. China may attack Taiwan to take control of it, and North Korea has continued to provoke by launching missiles. Potential serial wars in Northeast Asia seem to be unleashed and the New Cold War fully blossoms.
Biden strengthened the military alliance with Korea and Japan through joint military exercises around the Korean Peninsula to control not only North Korea but also China and Russia. He has often opened summits with Yoon SukYeol and Fumio Khisida, who launched the IPEF to block China’s economic expansion. In addition, the Quad summit aims to create a maritime safety net against China and denounce Russia’s military provocations.
This control policy is reminiscent of a Cold War appearance when Russia, China and North Korea stimulated their military enterprises.
Chinese warships conducted military exercises around Japanese islands to compete with U.S. joint exercises. In addition, military aircraft from China and Russia have invaded the Air Defense Identification Zone of Korea and Japan, and North Korea has launched intercontinental missiles.
International society is currently focusing on overheating competition as a strategic rival between the United States and China. In the geopolitical structure, the confrontation between the U.S.-Korea-China and Russia-China-North Korea will be strengthened in the new cold war. The vivid event as a turning point in Northeast Asia occurred in 2022. When North Korea continuously launched intercontinental ballistic missiles, Russia and China repeatedly boycotted UN sanctions as a permanent member of the Security Council. This deepened the confrontation between the two blocs.
North Korea illusorily boasted stronger relations with Russia and China in a military consolidation after the ICBM launch. However, it has also stimulated U.S. military exercises with Korea and Japan. Especially after the war in Ukraine, the United States paid attention to China’s potential war to attack Taiwan and North Korea’s missile threats in Northeast Asia. However, fearing collapse, North Korea will never give up intercontinental missiles or nuclear weapons because believing in them ensures national security. If North Korea dismantles nuclear weapons, it will be as easily attacked as Ukraine at any time.
Russia, China and North Korea are belligerent countries. However, they are also selfish ones who do not really care about each other. For example, China and North Korea maintain a reluctant attitude toward Russia, regardless of its struggles or not in the Ukraine war, and its serious national crisis.
The Russia-China-North Korea bloc seems to be collapsing and its solidarity is fading. As soon as the Ukraine War ends, the New Cold War will end. This means that their bold initiatives of military provocation no longer guarantee mutual national security.
How to End the New Cold War?
The New Cold War means that U.S.-Korea-Japan versus Russia-China-North Korea obviously confronts liberal democracy and communist autocracy. But it can be critically abstracted as the U.S.-China war beyond Russia. The United States recognizes that the alliance between Russia, China and North Korea is not much stronger as they focus on independent military initiatives without expecting practical support from an ally. Already in the Ukraine war, it was shown that China and North Korea would not be very supportive of Russia, comparing the United States to Ukraine with democratic countries.
The belligerent future of Russia, China and North Korea is very gloomy and desperate, and may disappear in the world power structure. There are some possibilities after their failure in the new cold war. First, Russia will be a normal country without military and economic power. Second, China will be torn apart by economic collapse. Third, North Korea will be absorbed by South Korea for peaceful reunification.
At that time, the New Cold War will end completely and global society will be in a peaceful environment without wars due to military and economic competition. The best way to end the New Cold War can be reasonably considered as follows.
First, it is necessary to convince Russia to end the war in Ukraine as soon as possible. Russia has already spent much of its national energy on turning the war into an economic crisis. If Russia gives up such a bold ambition, economic sanctions will be lifted and its recovery could be prospective.
Second, peaceful relations with China should be resumed. The U.S. should stop the policy of restraint toward China unless it provokes a war with military expansion. Ending the trade war will have an impact on the world economy for global prosperity.
Third, North Korea must give up nuclear weapons and become an official member of international society. In addition, if the two Koreas reunify, the security environment around Northeast Asia will subsequently be consolidated.
When Russia fails in the Ukraine War, the power structure of the New Cold War will automatically crumble. Weak Russia will turn to international society to recover its collapsed economy by giving up military ambitions. Russia could adopt advanced democratic systems for national development as Putin’s political death wipes out the communist dictatorship.
Moreover, when China fails in economy, the hottest factor of the New Cold War may disappear. However, if China abolishes the communist system of government and dictatorship, its economic potential will be fully explored, so that the United States will not take an unnecessary step as a main rival. North Korea’s opening to international economic markets and free trade without sanctions by dismantling its nuclear weapons will be another key clue to ending the new Cold War.
If Russia, China and North Korea abandon military ventures, the New Cold War will automatically end because they started it. Then the United States will also dissolve its military alliance with Korea and Japan to confront and defeat these belligerent countries.
The U.S.-Korea-Japan alliance, representing liberal democratic values, should find the best way to end the New Cold War rather than competing with or controlling Russia, China and North Korea. It is also the way to demonstrate the superiority of the democratic system by overcoming dictatorship and the communist system of government.
New Paradigm for Global Peace and Security
Ironically, the new Cold War may be a turning point to extinguish wars or conflicts and advance toward a peaceful world for human happiness and prosperity in general. Moreover, based on the obligation of democratic value, the United States, Korea and Japan should embrace the other core of global society and abandon military or economic competition.
The world has sought to achieve peace and security without war and conflict. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union was the only rival of the United States, but currently the United States faces a stronger rival, China, which challenges them with variable aspects of competitiveness. In the New Cold War, the United States would have to manage not only Russia, but also especially China and North Korea.
The melting point to extinguish the New Cold War can reach its peak when it strengthens soft power based on democratic value, geopolitical dedication and the general concept of human society. Military and economic hard power will help strengthen the global peace and prosperity that the world should carry forward together.
Therefore, the new paradigm for global peace and security is to establish satisfactory systems to thwart potential wars and properly organize major concepts that the world willingly accepts and explores. Ending the New Cold War means extinguishing all conflicts related to military, economy, resource, territory, industrial techniques and so on. At that time, the U.S.-Korea-Japan and Russia-China-North Korea confrontation to overcome each side will finally vanish.
Sunny Lee – Founder and President at CGPS (Center for Global Peace and Security), and Director at IKUPD (Institute for Korea-U.S. Political Development), Washington DC. Sunny Lee is the author of 115 academic books in politics (original English and in German, French, Russian, Polish, Dutch, Italian, Spanish, and Portuguese). She is a bestseller writer not only in politics but also in literature on Amazon. Her recent book is titled: “The Influence on Humankind’s Peace through Korean Reunification: Creating new paradigm in social science by interdisciplinary research.”
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).
Image Credit: KCNA/Yonhap (North Korean Central News Agency: North Korean leader Kim Jong in a weapons expo with a Russian delegation on July 29).