The geopolitics of Hong Kong’s protests

How an apparent “color-revolution” is being leveraged for the US-China trade war, Taiwan election politics and checking China’s rise.

By Andrew K.P.Leung (International and Independent China Strategist. Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited)

Hong Kong’s protests have been raging for months. At the front end, violence and lawlessness continue to escalate. Hong Kong’s legislative council (parliament) chamber was broken into and vandalized. Petrol bombs, hand catapults, metal rods, corrosive liquids, bricks, military-grade bows, arrows and knives are used or found.

A cache of high explosives was uncovered. Barricades are erected to block roads. Police stations are surrounded and threatened, staff quarters included. Police spouses and children are harassed. The International Airport was grounded to a halt several times. Mass Transit Railways offices and turnstiles are regularly ransacked.

Attempts are made to incite “strikes” in work, business, and schools. Some tactics and slogans are reminiscent of China’s “Cultural Revolution”. Others, like the forming of “human chains”, take a cue from the “Baltic Chain” which heralded the Baltic States’ independence from the former Soviet Union.

The protests were first triggered by an extradition bill in response to a Taiwan murder committed by a Hong Kong citizen, who cannot be prosecuted in Hong Kong in the absence of any extradition arrangement with Taiwan. The bill is broadened to avoid Hong Kong becoming a haven for cross-border criminal fugitives. However, this was politicized as removing the firewall between Hong Kong and Mainland China jurisdictions.

The way the government tried to bulldoze the bill through the legislature ignited a wildfire of fear, discontent and social anger. Besides severe housing unaffordability, lack of upward mobility, and erosion of the Hong Kong way of life, many are unhappy that One Country Two Systems has failed to deliver. One Country appears to swamp the Two Systems. Democracy in the circumstances has no future. Hong Kong needs to be “liberated” with a “Revolution of Our Times“, so go the protest slogans.

These sentiments are driven by a whole generation of young people brought up after Hong Kong’s reversion of sovereignty in an education system which ignores a sense of nationhood whilst consciously or unconsciously promoting a highly negative image of the People’s Republic of China. As a result, a vast majority of young people do not identify themselves as Chinese, but as “Hongkongers”. Most harbor a lack of empathy, if not outright contempt, of the Beijing regime to various degrees.

At one point, according to some estimate, a sea of humanity with some two million protesters took to the street. The vast majority are peaceful but are ambivalent about their militant co-protesters. Mostly the younger generation, they come from many walks of life, including university students and office workers. A significant number come from middle-class families.

Anti-establishment legislators are having a field day, expecting big wins in coming elections, reversing fortunes in recent years. They take an active part in supporting the protests and often appear as “impartial” observers or mediators during confrontations with the police.

While apparently without a single leader, the militants embrace the latest social media techniques, using encrypted internet platforms to discuss and mobilize manoeuvers. Flash mob tactics are adopted to spread unrest to different parts of Hong Kong, taking advantage of the highly efficient mass transit system.

Increasingly, violence is directed at symbols of Beijing’s authority. The national emblem of Beijing’s representative office building was defaced. Hoisted national flags are burned or thrown into the harbor. Recently some Hong Kong students were arrested in Tibet for displaying pro-Hong Kong independence banners. A video clip shows someone spraying Chinese words of “Liberation” and “Revolution” on an overhead signboard on a Mainland highway. (1)

The United States is seen to be upfront in backing these protests. Star activist Joshua Wong met with senior US Consulate officials. Prominent activist Jimmy Lai, founder of influential anti-establishment newspaper The Apple Daily, was given unprecedented audience with US Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. He is reported to have openly admitted that his aim is to topple President Xi, and that he is prepared to die for it! (2) Joshua Wong also recently said that Chief Executive Carrie Lam’s resignation won’t change matters, only the downfall of the Communist regime. At a recent US Congressional hearing (3) on the “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy” bill , Joshua Wong, Denis Ho and other activists said as much.

Activist American NGO’s like the National Endowment for Democracy (4) and other international institutions like the Oslo Freedom Forum are reportedly funding or training leading activists in civil disobedience and other protest tactics. (5) (6) TV footages bear witness to how well organized the militants are in communicating with overhead hand-signals through a sea of protesters. Needed equipment and accessories are efficiently delivered through the line. There appeared tacit coordination with “pseudo-reporters” on the battlefront. Some frontline protesters are very well equipped, with sophisticated gas masks and protective armor. Reports from various sources suggest that some militants (or agents provocateurs) get paid hundreds of US dollars by the day.

The ill-fated extradition bill has now been formally declared withdrawn. Yet, the protest movement with associated violence and wanton destruction of public property carries on regardless. They continue to hold Hong Kong’s law and order to ransom, pressing on with the remainder of their so-called “Five Demands”.

The first demand regarding the extradition bill has now been met. The rest are: setting up an independent commission of inquiry to look into alleged police brutality and other issues; dropping “riot” charges which can attract a prison term of up to ten years; general amnesty for all arrested offenders; and unfettered universal suffrage to elect Hong Kong’s Chief Executive. Currently, in accordance with the Basic Law, Hong Kong’s constitution for One Country Two Systems, the latter is appointed by Beijing following election by a committee of representative interests numbering 1,200 individuals.

Whatever appeal an independent commission of inquiry has after the whole protest movement dies down, right now it risks becoming a rioters’ sanctuary as evidence tendered will escape prosecution. Dropping “riot” charges and general amnesty will undermine the law to deter rioters’ violence. A universal suffrage package allowing one-man-one-vote in accordance with relevant provisions in the Basic Law was turned down, leading to the “Umbrella Movement”. Free universal suffrage doesn’t address Beijing’s fear that, absent enactment of Article 23 of the Basic Law (against subversion and sedition), a Chief Executive may be elected who may push Hong Kong towards separatism. Such fear becomes even more pronounced as a result of the current protests.

Meanwhile, in Taiwan, the carrot of One Country Two Systems has long lost any appeal. Hong Kong’s protests has now succeeded in reversing the initially-favorable electoral chances of the more Beijing friendly political party.

Nevertheless, according to the Fraser Institute of Canada, amidst the protests, Hong Kong still maintains its top slot as the world’s freest economy, despite warnings about Beijing’s interference. Allegations by activists appear over-hyped that Hong Kong is descending into One Country One System.

What is more, at the outset of the previous Umbrella Movement, the United States was reported to be liaising with leading Hong Kong instigators, including Jimmy Lai. The shadow of an American “black hand” also lurks in the background with the current protests. To Beijing, the two consecutive protests seem part of a sustained plot.

Unsurprisingly, Beijing has come to the conclusion that these protests are not about the extradition bill. Social discontent and youth idealism have apparently been hijacked as leverage for ulterior motives. The objective seems to be bringing down the Hong Kong government and provoking Beijing’s intervention with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), a trap to ensnarl China and to arrest its rise. References are made by Beijing of a “color revolution” with hints of “terrorism”.

Beijing has hardened its line. Across the border, the PLA is on high alert, its local garrison standing ready. There are talks about invoking colonial-era draconian “emergency powers” remaining on the statue books to restore law and order. A sense of foreboding prevails, stroked by a breakdown of trust in Beijing, the Hong Kong government, the police, and even the impartiality of the judiciary.

As I write, Hong Kong remains on the edge of a cliff, with a looming anti-Hong Kong bill on Capitol Hill and a prolonged socio-political tempest raging within its shores.

Nevertheless, both Beijing and Hong Kong have wised up to tackling the deep-seated social ills that inflame the protests. Beijing has openly taken to task Hong Kong’s largest and iconic land developer, an unprecedented breathtaking move. On the cards is resort to statutory land resumption powers to buy back agricultural land, hoarded by the largest developers, for much-needed public housing. Against all odds, not least a deficit of public trust, Chief Executive Carrie Lam has embarked on a long series of open dialogue with protesters and the wider community. The hope is to build reconciliation and find ways to address deep-seated concerns.

In any case, the die is cast. Taiwan politics are changing for the worse for Beijing. A powerful leverage is delivered into the hands of the United States with a strong bipartisan consensus to check China’s assertiveness and in the midst of ongoing US-China trade negotiations.

What started as a straight-forward extradition bill has played out its unintended “butterfly effect” to trigger a geopolitical tsunami to Beijing’s disadvantage.

Image Credit: Vernon Yuen/NurPhoto/Getty Images]

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