By Denis Korkodinov
The capture of the city of Aden by the forces of the Southern Transitional Council creates difficulties in restoring the territorial integrity of Yemen. The countries of the Arab coalition and the United States are implementing a plan to divide the country into small state formations.
According to the Hussites, which is also confirmed on the basis of sources in the Gulf countries, the coup d’état in Aden undertaken by the southerners was provoked by the military command of the United Arab Emirates. In other words, the regrouping of the UAE forces in the northern regions of Yemen in the summer of 2019, and not the withdrawal of troops, according to many media, was necessary in order to establish a clear border between the North and the South and allow local armed forces to strengthen their positions and begin country separation campaign.
The actions of the Southern Transitional Council to seize the second capital of Yemen – the city of Aden – on August 10, 2019 were agreed with Abu Dhabi and the Saudis. This explains the fact that the very day after the capture of the city of Aden, Ridyah easily recognized the power of the southerners in the region, effectively abolishing the power of the Yemeni “government in exile” under the auspices of Mansour Hadi.
Thus, with the capture of Aden in Yemen, the process of partitioning the country has begun.
A coalition of Arab states led by the UAE and Saudi Arabia began hatching plans to divide Yemen in 2015, when, due to protracted internecine wars between various Yemeni clans and armed groups, international ports that were in the interests of Abu Dhabi and Er -Riyadh. First of all, this concerns the ports of Aden and Hodeida, which the Gulf countries and the United States intend to use as naval bases and logistics centers to ensure their own interests off the coast of the Arabian Peninsula.
In addition, control over the Pollen Allen allows for almost unimpeded access to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which is necessary for oil transit, which is especially important against the backdrop of Iran’s threats to block the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the countries of the Arab coalition and Washington failed to agree with the Hussites, as the Ansar Allah movement still insists on the withdrawal of all foreign troops from Yemen. However, the Southern Transitional Council proved more accommodating.
Therefore, it was decided to transfer the city of Aden under his control, hoping that this port would be open to the countries of the alliance. Subsequently, the United States intends to organize a military base in Aden, which could ensure the safety of navigation in the strait of Bab el-Mandeb and serve to strike at Iranian targets.
After the capture of Aden, the armed forces of the United Arab Emirates and the South Transitional Council advanced in the direction of the ports of Moh and Hodeid in order to block the western part of Yemen from the rest of the territory. The offensive is carried out in four directions: 1) Zubab district – Lahja province, 2) Mudarib – Sabiha – Lahja regions – Mount Kahbub, 3) Humeir province – Mount Khabashi – Taiz, 4) areas of Vazia – Muafara – Taiz.
It is worth noting that the geographic remoteness of the UAE from Yemen and the economic “fatigue” of Riyadh due to the protracted war in the region impede the actions of the Arab coalition. At the same time, Abu Dhabi and the Saudis do not intend to abandon their Yemeni allies, who are still trying to ensure their interests on the Arabian coast. For this reason alone, the forces of the Southern Transitional Council were allowed to capture Aden.
Thus, after the intensification of the armed forces of the southerners in Yemen, most likely, a series of interconnected conflicts aimed at capturing the strategically important Yemeni ports will follow. The result of this military campaign is likely to be the final division of Yemen into small fractions, which will be in a state of permanent war with each other.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)
Image Credit: MEO