By Denis Korkodinov
The abolition of the special status of Kashmir, no matter what opinion the UN Security Council adheres to, can hardly reassure the parties to the conflict in the foreseeable future. Based on the extremely painful attitude to this problem on the part of Pakistan and India, the situation is likely to only worsen. The only way to prevent the escalation of the conflict could be a referendum.
Supporters of the tough line in the New Delhi government believe that by repealing article 370 of the Indian Constitution, a conflict that smolders for several decades can be leveled. At the same time, they recognize that such constitutional reform can cause a series of social protests in Kashmir and beyond, but they deliberately take risks, being confident that sooner or later the inhabitants of the disputed region will recognize the jurisdiction of India.
Nevertheless, opponents of the abolition of the special status of the territory are of the opinion that the discontent in Kashmir, after the unpopular measures of the Indian government, can no longer be neutralized, since the people felt once again deceived. As a result of this, most likely, aggression in the region will increase exponentially. And other countries and decision centers will be forced to intervene in the conflict. The terrorist activity of Kashmiri militants and sympathizing groups can manifest themselves not only in India and Pakistan, but also anywhere in the world where Indian or Pakistani interests are somehow represented.
Such a scenario is not so fantastic, given the role that Islamabad can play in relation to India. Despite the fact that Pakistan has an extremely low prestige in the international arena, and its economic development has an extremely negative dynamics, the topic of Kashmir is perceived in Islamabad as a non-healing wound. In this regard, any restrictions on the status of the territory for Pakistan are extremely painful.
For this reason, Islamabad is unlikely to lose its ability to use its entire military arsenal, including nuclear weapons, to protect its interests. Until now, the sluggish tensions in relations with New Delhi have met the expectations of Islamabad, since this did not give rise to the exhaustion of its military resources. However, the Indian government has unequivocally informed the whole world community that it is ready for the conflict to develop into a phase of full-scale military confrontation. In other words, Pakistan was challenged, which it cannot refuse.
At the same time, the increased activity of the Taliban movement in Afghanistan significantly complicates the security of India, as Afghan militants are particularly interested in participating in the Kashmir conflict. Such a combination of circumstances does not allow us to argue that military operations in Kashmir can be prevented solely by diplomatic measures, without resorting to the use of weapons of mass destruction.
The particular difficulty is that the abolition of the special status of Kashmir will not solve the problems of the inhabitants of the region. In this case, the vast majority of residents of the disputed state come up with the idea of holding a referendum on self-determination while maintaining relations with Pakistan, India and other countries of the international community.
Perhaps this measure is radical for India, but in the present conditions it is the only correct one. Kashmiris themselves must decide in which state they live. Moreover, they must be sure that their safety is not in danger. Pakistan and India can equally support an alliance with Kashmir, but state residents should be able to independently determine their fate.
This could be put an end to the conflict and make the Kashmir problem resolved. If the New Delhi government agrees to hold a referendum in Kashmir, it will significantly increase the confidence rating in India in the international arena. Moreover, Islamabad can take the same path, recognizing Kashmir’s right to a referendum, from which Pakistan will only be in a advantageous position, since, in this case, the threat of mutual destruction of countries as a result of a nuclear strike will be eliminated. But somehow Kashmir’s voice must be counted.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)
Foto Credit: Faisal Khan – Anadolu Agency/AA