World Geostrategic Insights interview with Sunny Lee on U.S.-South Korean relations, South Korea’s potential and constraints for emerging as a global geopolitical player, and the contentious issue of South Korea’s possible development of own nuclear weapons.
Sunny Lee is the Founder and President at CGPS (Center for Global Peace and Security), and Director at IKUPD ( Institute for Korea-US Political Development Institute), Washington DC. Sunny Lee is the author of 115 academic books in politics (original English and in German, French, Russian, Polish, Dutch, Italian, Spanish and Portuguese). Her recent book is titled: “The Influence on Humankind’s Peace through Korean Reunification: Creating new paradigm in social science by interdisciplinary research”.
Q1 – South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has been invited to address Congress and meet with President Joe Biden later this month, the first trip to the United States by a South Korean leader in 12 years, to celebrate 70 years of alliance between the two countries, an alliance the United States emphasizes is ironclad. Since taking office last year, President Yoon Suk Yeol has put a strengthened military partnership with the United States at the center of his foreign policy to address escalating North Korean nuclear threats and other challenges. However, leaked U.S. intelligence documents alleging that Washington spied on South Korea have put the South Korean leader in a delicate situation, although both Seoul and Washington are trying to downplay the leak. What is your opinion on the current state of affairs and possible developments in U.S.-South Korean relations? Do you think the April 26 summit with President Joe Biden will resolve grievances from Seoul over the Biden administration’s security commitments and economic policies, and from Washington over South Korea’s balancing with the United States, Russia and China and its standing on the sidelines of the Russia-Ukraine war?
A1- Basically, President Yoon Suk Yeol is losing his power with the possibility of impeachment like former President Park KuenHye. Now, indoor politics in Korea gets entangled after the Korea-Japan Summit in March. If Yoon becomes impeached, the new administration will be relatively different from the foreign policy of the present government that Korean people mostly think has absolutely failed.
President Yoon is focusing on strong relationships with the U.S. and Japan in military and economic affiliation while emphasizing the security environment in Northeast Asia. Even though the former Moon JaeIn Government resisted THAAD and insisted on abolition of GSOMIA, Yoon started its normal process again. Such Yoon’s policy is now bringing up the huge scale of controversial issues in not only politics but also general Korean people’s opinion.
South Korea’s military power and techniques can independently cover up North Korea’s any invasion as well as even China, Japan, and Russia in Northeast Asia. We don’t have to extend military alliance and moreover, reinforce drills with Japan. We can even require withdrawal of the U.S. military in Korea and abolition of the Korea-US Mutual Defense Treaty. Furthermore, we can recall and must recover the WT-OPCON.
Biden is exploiting the South Korean Government in the name of alliance and Japan as well. President Yoon based on obedience and naiveness is managed by their interests. For example, Yoon promised to pay Korean labors’ compensation in Japan’s colonial period by Korean companies and yielded DoKdo Island’s military rights to Japan. Nonetheless, Yoon didn’t get any proper responsibility from Japan for national interests. First of all, Yoon is not taking serious follow-ups against Washington’s spied action that he willingly obeys any kind of threat, action, and policy toward Korea. Spying on the South Korean Government is a really serious issue to injure the alliance between Korea and the U.S. that Yoon should ask the U.S. for clear investigation and punishment. This kind of responsibility provokes the Korean people against Yoon toward impeachment.
In the April 26 Summit, I think Biden will try to get a more submissive relationship with Yoon. He already pushed South Korea to buy excessive military weapons and Korean companies’ industrial movement to the U.S. territory. First of all, Biden will ask Yoon’s policy in the sideline of the U.S. against China and Russia. Even though it will result in the danger of relations between Russia and Korea, Biden will demand continued support of Russia-Ukraine War for the U.S. military assistance to Ukraine.
Therefore, Yoon should really understand the core policy of the U.S. as considering what is the best for the Korean Government and he must manage to level up the equal alliance. Otherwise, Biden will get everything whatever he wants but Yoon will lose a lot that he will be finally impeached in Korea.
Q2 – South Korea enjoys a growing global presence, a top-10 economic position, and a top-six military power, superior to that of Japan. It is generally recognized that South Korea, by virtue of its rapid economic development and growing presence on the international stage, has the potential to make a greater and more substantial contribution to global challenges. And indeed President Yoon has set out to make South Korea a “global pivotal state.” Seoul, however, does not currently seem to be taking full advantage of this potential, and South Korea’s stature does not yet seem to have reached the level of an emerging global geopolitical player. Why? In your opinion, does South Korea have the ability and willingness to pull its weight in the rivalry between great powers and global governance?
A2- For instance, South Korea’s industrial techniques and its potential would reach the top site that pushes up the level of the most important economic country in the world. South Korea’s military weapons with advanced techniques are daily excelling over the U.S. military industries. Furthermore, BTS already surpassed the historical record of the Beatles. K-Culture spreads on the globe as a worldwide trend. In a very short time, Korea’s potential in overall areas is exploding and its speed is running so fast in a flurry of wind on the top of mountains. On the reverse, Japan is obviously withering, and the U.S. is relatively declining in their national competitiveness by already losing their feet to follow up Korea.
The Korean Government should recognize these symptoms that mostly democratic governments focused and achieved and fully take advantage of such an opportunity as a global geopolitical player in Northeast Asia. Korea can be the center of politics, economy, military, culture, and much more on the globe.
Nonetheless, President Yoon’s policy is taking a backward step that he willingly yields to the U.S. and Japan in a disciplined position, even though Korea can lead those countries. If he said, ‘global pivotal state,’ even he doesn’t understand what it means in view of his overall policies that don’t really match to upgrade national competitiveness or develop such potential. Since being elected, he has been ranked the lowest position among the 22 main countries’ leaders. Public opinion about Yoon’s administration has been recorded around 20% so far that he will be impeached or must resign this year.
Korea is ready to pull up its rivalry to lead global powers but only the Yoon Government is not ready while running toward the backstep. So the new government will fully propel to explore Korea’s national potential again, because it is also most of the Korean people’s wish since Yoon’s appearance.
Q3 – In recent years Seoul has invested in more sophisticated, longer-range conventional missile capabilities, which could also be used to launch nuclear missiles. It appears that popular support for nuclear weapons in South Korea hovers around 70 percent, with the backdrop of doubts about U.S. security guarantees. Last January South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol made explicit comments about the possibility of Seoul developing its own nuclear weapons in the face of North Korea’s growing nuclear threats. What is your opinion? Will South Korea sooner or later acquire its own nuclear weapons?
A3- President Yoon whatever he said, he doesn’t take any actual policy procedure that he mentioned as a president. Verbally, he just says without serious consideration.
Currently, South Korea’s missile range covers Northeast Asia, and its capability is enough to defend North Korea’s military and nuclear attacks by kill-chain. South Korea can fully cope with nuclear threats from North Korea and even military attacks from any other countries in Northeast Asia. As well, South Korea’s nuclear techniques and its manufacturing system have been ranked with the top quality in the world that it has prepared to make enough nuclear weapons right away at any time.
However, for regional peace and security in Northeast Asia, developing nuclear weapons is not a proper idea. If South Korea officially develops nuclear weapons, it will stimulate North Korea to reinforce nuclear arms. The worst thing comes from the dangerous situation to make a reasonable clue that Japan will also develop nuclear weapons as a strong nuclear potential country. And then China and Russia will reinforce nuclear capability. It will lead the nuclear fireplace around Northeast Asia against regional security by excessive military competence between countries.
Sunny Lee – Founder and President at CGPS (Center for Global Peace and Security), and Director at IKUPD ( Institute for Korea-US Political Development Institute), Washington DC.