By Andrew KP Leung (International and Independent China Strategist. Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited).
The latest World Bank report paints a rather gloomy picture of the global economy for the rest of this decade.
I find the prognosis a little over-pessimistic. While the report covers the contribution of the digital economy, it doesn’t seem to do enough justice to key productivity-growth drivers of the “Fourth and Fifth Industrial Revolutions” driven by 5G and 6G, Big Data, Artificial Intelligence and the Internet of Things.
Strong headwinds identified in the report including the Ukraine war, supply chain disruptions, Climate Change, and weakening demographics will damper growth. However, they may not necessarily derail growth of domestic economies driven by a new era of digitised services without borders.
Obstacles to international trade will witness strong growth engines such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, the world’s largest free trade bloc accounting for a third of the global economy and a third of world population including the world’s fastest-growing consumer middle class.
Lack of domestic infrastructure would lend itself to relief by initiatives such as China’s Belt and Road Initiative, supported by the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the New Development Bank, and the Global Development Initiative.
Additionally, following a China-brokered historic rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, a more peaceful, interconnected Middle East focusing on trade, investments, growth and development is around the corner.
All in all, I am inclined to the view that while the world may face a challenging and slower decade, there are green pastures rapidly emerging in the horizon, including a more dynamic and globally-connected China.
Andrew KP Leung – Independent international strategist of China; he previously served as director general of social welfare and Hong Kong’s official representative for the United Kingdom, Eastern Europe, Russia, Norway, and Switzerland.