By Denis Korkodinov
Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi launched a major reform of the armed forces supported by Iran. In particular, significant changes must take place in the Hashd al-Shaabi movement, which has been fighting the Islamic State for the past five years.
According to the legislative initiative, it is prohibited to have military bases on the territory of Iraq, unless they are authorized by the state. In addition, the Hashd al-Shaabi movement is not allowed to redeploy, to have weapons outside the jurisdiction of official Baghdad. The participants of the movement who violated these prohibitions can be declared “outlawed” with all the ensuing consequences.
Based on this, over the next 2-3 years, the Iraqi militia is likely to be withdrawn from Nineveh, Salah al-Din and Kirkuk, which are outside the jurisdiction of the Prime Minister of Iraq and where the position of the Islamic State is quite strong. In turn, the increased influence of Hashd al-Shaabi, analysts expect, should occur in the province of Diyala, in Samara, and especially along the border with Saudi Arabia (in the immediate vicinity of Kerbela).
Thus, Baghdad intends to clearly mark the “red line” between the Sunni and Shiite regions. In addition, the redeployment of groups of Iraqi forces solely on a religious basis recently occurred in Christian areas in the vicinity of Mosul, which had left Hashd al-Shaabi.
According to experts, the reform of the Iraqi militia was initiated by Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi in order to increase his influence in the country. In addition, more recently, Hashd al-Shaabi has been strongly influenced by Iran, as a result of which official Baghdad began to show concern, since the militia could pose a threat to the government of Iraq.
Nevertheless, there is a point of view that the redeployment of the group and its subordination to the official government greatly alleviates the position of the leader of Khashlg al-Shaabi Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, who is currently on the so-called “terrorist list” of Washington.
The fact is that now the operation of the Americans to seize Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis may not be particularly difficult, since the movement he heads is scattered and is located in close proximity to the Iraqi border, where the positions of the Islamic State are very strong. However, redeploying the movement to the deep Iraqi rear and reassigning the central command practically nullifies the risk of seizing or destroying its leaders.
At the same time, it is worth noting that, in reforming the Iraqi militia, official Baghdad probably comes from the American agenda. For example, US National Security Advisor John Bolton repeatedly warned the Iraqi Prime Minister about the inadmissibility of Iran’s use of the Hashd al-Shaabi group to create a threat to American interests. In this regard, to reassure Washington and its partners, Baghdad took up the reform process.
However, the redeployment of Hashd al-Shaabi to Iraq’s territory may cause concern on the part of Iran, which is unlikely to tolerate the loss of its influence in Irak. In the end, for Tehran, Hashd al-Shaabi is a definite guarantee that Washington will not bring an attack from Iraq.
Among other things, the withdrawal of the militia from the territory controlled by jihadists, can be a “green light” for the “Islamic state”, which is likely to strengthen its position in Nineveh, Salah al-Din and Kirkuk. Such a scenario could lead to an escalation of the conflict in these areas, which would indicate the beginning of the revival of ISIS.
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).
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