By Shah Meer
The Indo-Pacific region is ready to host one of the greatest, hybrid and deadly global competitions for hegemony and dominance.
The US, China and India are the competing actors for the best possible advantage in the region. New Delhi and Washington enjoy the convergence of intentions to counterweight Beijing. This entente is resulting in the rapid rise of India which is unpalatable for Pakistan. Islamabad is in no way in any line to perceive and compete with the global dynamics.
The Geopolitics of Indo-Pacific
The US is the hegemon in the Indo-Pacific region enjoying a firm control of the sea lines of communication SLOCs, chokepoints and order established after World War Second and strengthened at the end of the Cold War. It has control over the Strait of Malacca and the Lombok Strait, from where 80 percent of Chinese oil passes. Seeing the American power projection, the administrations in Beijing feel vulnerable to any oil blockade.
China is rising and is an actual threat to American preeminence. In December 2017, Washington updated its national security strategy labeling China a strategic competitor. However, It is a continental power far behind the US in its naval capability. It also requires fast and formidable supply lines and logistical support in the Indo-Pacific. Amazingly, it has no land access to the Indian Ocean.
The former Indian Chief of Naval Staff, Admiral Mehta, once commented, ‘The weak area for China today is the Indian Navy. We sit in the Indian Ocean that is a concern for China and they are not happy as it is not so easy for them to come inside’
Nevertheless, China is ardent enough to not only boost its naval capability but also work on the impediments on its way to dominance. Beijing has invested in A2/AD systems to defend its maritime approaches at a greater distance. It has also shown satisfactory interest in maritime power projection, the development of aircraft carriers, destroyers, and nuclear-powered submarines. In the overall modernization scheme, the PLA’s ground forces are low prioritized.
China’s string of pearls strategy is also worth noting. Through this strategy, China is developing ports of Gawadar, Hambantota and Kyaukphyu to eliminate the vulnerability of its SLOCs beginning from the Persian Gulf and endangered by India.
Beijing is about to attain a monopoly on regional trade and connectivity. At the time when the US withdrew from Trans-Pacific Partnership due to populist concerns, and India didn’t sign Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, China has a leading role in RCEP. It has also submitted a formal application in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership and Digital Economy Partnership Agreement. It possesses the mega BRI and several bilateral and multilateral agreements on trade. It will help the administrations in Beijing to set the global rules of trade at large.
These developments have dramatically reshaped the balance of power between India and China, and the US is taking full leverage to manipulate the situation in its favor. The maritime modernizations are supposed to be happening when there are fewer geopolitical constraints. The US is using India to engage China on land to divert its attention from maritime modernization. Washington is also using its traditional ‘buck-passing strategy’ to counter China in its very own region.
India also carries its own concerns in the region. It looks at the Chinese rise in discontent. It aims at the safety of its mainland (having a 7,516.6 km coastline) and the survival of its islands, SLOCs and chokepoints. One of the major interests that India carries is to eliminate the influence of any power in the region and get possible access to underwater resources.
To achieve its ends, New Delhi is enhancing its military capability, engaging in regional maritime collaborations, and carrying bilateral and multilateral cooperation with the major powers. India has a base in Seychelles, links with Mombasa, Mauritius, Oman, and South Africa.
The American ‘Pivot to Asia’ and the Rise of India
The Chinese agitation led to convergence of interests between India and America. To counter Beijing, the US is cooperating with New Delhi in every sphere. Writing in Foreign Affairs, KL Juster, M. Kumar, W. Cutler, and N. Forbes claim “over the past 22 years, the United States and India have steadily widened and deepened their partnership to cover every area of human endeavor, ranging from defense and counter-terrorism to health and education”.
The US has also signed four defense treaties with India such as LEMOA, BECA, DTTI and COMCASA in a very short span of time. When Turkey purchased S-400 missile technology from Russia, the US imposed sanctions on it under CAATSA, but only four days ago New Delhi received the second regiment of S-400 from Moscow, and the US is silent.
The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue QUAD is the most notable of these developments. The US and India along with Japan and Australia signed the dialogue to keep sea routes free from any political and strategic influence.
The 2008 nuclear deal between India and the US, which tore apart the non-proliferation regime, is an unprecedented instance in their bilateral relations. New Delhi gave fourteen of its twenty-two power reactors under the safeguard of the International Atomic Energy Commission. In return, it received dual-use nuclear technology that can be used to enrich uranium and reprocess plutonium. It will also receive imported fuel for its nuclear reactors.
The overextended commitments and unlimited favors to India by the US are not unprecedented in the post-World War Second era. The administrations in Washington amid the cold war supported China in the same way in the wake of the nationalistic communist model of the USSR. The Sino-American entente gave incentives to Beijing to continue with the strength of its illegitimate designs of irredentism. New Delhi is following suit.
The far right-wing Bhartiya Janta Party caused an unstoppable rise in Hindu nationalism. As said by the commentators, ‘the more BJP grows to power, the more 200 million Muslims face hardship’. They call Muslims ‘two-legged animals the production of which must stop’.
In terms of democracy, the 2020 democracy index ranks India as an electorate autocracy and a flawed democracy. It is the result of the RSS-influenced administration of N. Modi. It has made laws that preserve the Hindu sacred and ignores others. The administration is purely given under the ultra-nationalist such as Yogi Adityanath, and it results in the legitimization of groups and volunteers that aim to protect RSS ideology. There are instances of crackdowns against international organizations and suppression of media.
The violations of international law in Kashmir, built on acerbity and accost, are also from Modi’s legacy. The attempt of changing demography and abrogating the special status of Kashmir has caused the violation of International Humanitarian Law. New Delhi has also violated article 1 of the 1992 UN Declaration on enforced disappearance, and other relevant articles of human rights i.e. articles 3 and 5 of UDHR.
Possible Challenges for Pakistan
The American silence, overextended commitments and unlimited favors caused India’s rise, which is the direct result of the geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific. Unfortunately, Pakistan has no profound, proactive and inclusive policy to coup up with these developments. Islamabad’s maritime policy begins and ends on Gawadar which is itself the victim of regional instability.
The country is also passing from a dire economic crisis. During the Imran Khan’s tenure, inflation rose from 5.1 percent to 12.7 percent. The foreign debt grew from $ 95 billion to $ 130 billion, a historical addition of $ 35 billion. The GDP grew 5.8 percent before the Khan’s administration is stagnant today.
Seeing the historical economic dependence, PM Khan introduced the National Security Policy a record transformation from geo-strategic to geo-economics. It was seen as a challenging shift by the west since Khan tried to formulate an independent foreign policy. He also visited Moscow on the eve of the Russo-Ukrainian war and abstained from condemning the Russian invasion in UNGA.
The Khan regime was changed after a huge political instability and constitutional turmoil. Mr. Khan believes that the US was the mastermind conspiring against his regime. In fact, the regime change was rather planned in the General Headquarters Rawalpindi than in the Department of State or CIA headquarters in Washington.
Pakistan is a federal and a centralized state, yet there are three separatist movements in four of its federating units. C. Jaffrelot rightly remarks that Pakistan has nationalism without a nation.
The internal instabilities coupled with the rise in India’s economy, military and influence can cause drawbacks for Pakistan in the foreseeable future. The house divided against itself cannot resist foreign threats. It is better to understand the actual threats, unprecedented developments and new dimensions.
For doing so, Pakistan needs a proactive and inclusive policy to not only ensure economic development but also make sure to erect an international standard navy to face the dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region. A comprehensive maritime approach has to be followed based on bilateral and multilateral Maritime collaboration, cooperation with the great powers in the high seas against piracy for the freedom of navigation, and keeping the SLOCs and chokepoints free from the influence of any single country.
Author: Shah Meer (Undergraduate student of International Relations at the University of Balochistan and independent researcher).
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy or views of World Geostrategic Insights).
Image Source: Pakistan Navy Website