By Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin have met Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv, and announced additional military assistance and the gradual return of American diplomats to the war-ravaged nation.
It was the highest-level US visit to Ukraine since the Ukraine-Russia war broke out. During their visit, they announced that Washington would provide more than $300m in military financing and had approved a $165m sale of ammunition. They also said US President Joe Biden would soon announce his nominee to be ambassador to Ukraine and that American diplomats who left Ukraine before the war would start returning to the country in the coming week, although the US embassy in Kyiv will remain closed for the moment.
The trip was kept secret and even the Journalists who traveled with the US officials to Poland were barred from reporting on the trip until it was over, were not allowed to accompany them on their overland journey into Ukraine, and were prohibited from specifying where in southeast Poland they waited for the cabinet members to return.
This visit may turn a significant twist in the Ukraine war. Just a couple of weeks ago, the peace negotiations were going on in Turkey, where the terms and conditions were discussed to end the war. Although there were few differences in the terms and conditions between the warring nations, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has given signals to end the war.
The international community was optimistic about Turkey’s brokered peace negotiations and was hoping to end the war and save the loss of precious human lives on both sides. As a matter of fact, the International community was aware of the global consequences of this and scared of global economic recession and meltdown.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has already predicted a set back on global economic recovery. In a report, the IMF warned that the war in Ukraine has triggered a costly humanitarian crisis that demands a peaceful resolution. At the same time, economic damage from the conflict will contribute to a significant slowdown in global growth in 2022 and add to inflation. Fuel and food prices have increased rapidly, hitting vulnerable populations in low-income countries hardest. Global growth is projected to slow from an estimated 6.1 percent in 2021 to 3.6 percent in 2022 and 2023. This is 0.8 and 0.2 percentage points lower for 2022 and 2023 than projected in January.
Beyond 2023, global growth is forecast to decline to about 3.3 percent over the medium term. War-induced commodity price increases and broadening price pressures have led to 2022 inflation projections of 5.7 percent in advanced economies and 8.7 percent in emerging market and developing economies—1.8 and 2.8 percentage points higher than projected last January. Multilateral efforts to respond to the humanitarian crisis, prevent further economic fragmentation, maintain global liquidity, manage debt distress, tackle climate change, and end the pandemic are essential.
Unfortunately, the US and NATO’s stance to supply military support to Ukraine has encouraged the prolongation of the war. It might serve the American interests to make Russia bleed for a longer time. But the consequences faced by the rest of the world may be equally harmful. The direct impact on Europe will be much more visible. Developing countries and rather weak economies are also being hit hard. Prolonged war may create human-made crises and disasters.
It was desired to resolve the crisis through dialogue and negotiation under the UN charter. The sooner the war ends, the better for humankind. War is a disaster and must be prevented. However, the US and NATO decisions and actions are simply adding fuel to fire and rather complicating the situation further.
In fact, the twist in the Ukraine crisis has raised questions for many peace-loving nations and individuals around the globe. It is urged to cease fire immediately and overcome the differences through diplomatic and political negotiations under the UN charter. All peace-loving individuals and nations are appealed to struggle for saving human lives instantly to the best of their capacities.
Author: Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan – Sinologist (ex-Diplomat), Editor, Analyst, Non-Resident Fellow of CCG (Center for China and Globalization), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Pakistan.
(The views and opinions expressed in this article are only of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views, opinion or position of World Geostrategic Insights).