By Denis Korkodinov

    Ankara began rapprochement with Saudi Arabia. At least, this is evidenced by a number of measures taken by the Turkish government to resume a constructive dialogue with Riyadh. In particular, during the celebration of Eid al-Fitr, Recep Erdogan congratulated King Salman by telephone call. In addition, Turkey has officially condemned the attack of Yemeni Hussites at Saudi Abha airport.

    Such manifestations of the desire for friendship signal a policy of reanimation of bilateral relations. However, this remains extremely insufficient for asserting that a Turkish-Saudi alliance is going to take place.

    Ankara is experiencing significant economic problems associated with the outflow of capital. For this reason, the search for international investors, primarily in the Persian Gulf, is of paramount importance for it, especially against the background of increasing US sanctions and pressure due to the purchase of Russian C-400 systems. Among other things, the open confrontation of Ankara with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi creates additional difficulties, as a result of which Recep Erdogan risks losing influence on the geopolitical processes taking place in the Middle East and North Africa.

    The Turkish leader is well aware that it is only possible to improve his economic performance by restoring ties with rich countries, one of which is Saudi Arabia. However, the Saudis are not in a hurry to assist the Turks. It is much more important for them to draw Ankara into the anti-Iranian coalition, and also to encourage Recep Erdogan to reconsider his policy towards Qatar and to abandon the support of the Muslim Brotherhood.

    It is worth noting that Turkey owes much to Saudi Arabia. Thus, in 2006, King Abdullah, during his official visit to Ankara, concluded an extensive package of international agreements that allow the Turkish state to significantly improve its economic situation. In addition, since 2013, Turkish-Saudi relations have acquired a military dimension, according to which military personnel of the Saudi Arabian Air Force could be trained in Turkey.

    In 2016, between Ankara and Riyadh, an agreement was reached on the establishment of a bilateral coordination council, which allows exchanging intelligence information and organizing joint military exercises. But the most important success of Erdogan was that he was able to achieve the location of the Saudi monarchy in the Syrian conflict, where Riyadh unequivocally opposed Bashar al-Assad.

    The first stumbling block was the 2013 coup in Egypt. Ankara strongly condemned the support of Riyadh Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi and spoke out in support of the overthrown Muslim Brotherhood government. However, because of Syria, Turkey did not bring the resulting conflict between the countries to a break in diplomatic relations, limiting itself only to a public expression of concern.

    Subsequently, Recep Erdogan entered into an alliance with Russia and Iran within the framework of the “Astana” and “Sochi” formats. In addition, the Turks gradually began to distance themselves from Saudi politics in Syria, Libya and Sudan. The last nails in the coffin of relations between Turkey and Riyadh were the support given by Recep Erdogan to Qatar and the murder of journalist Jemal Hashoggi.

    It is noteworthy that the Turks tried to show their anger exclusively to the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, intending to discredit him and prevent the process of succession in Riyadh. However, such efforts proved fruitless. After that, Ankara began to address its claims to the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, Mohammed bin Zayed. But these allegations did not lead to any result.

    Moreover, after a series of information campaigns, the United Arab Emirates and the Saudis put unprecedented pressure on Turkey, effectively putting it on the brink of economic default.

    A huge propaganda effect against Turkey created a “viral” video in which the governor of Riyadh, Prince Faisal ben Bandar defiantly refused to drink a cup of Turkish coffee. After the active dissemination of this video in the Saudi segment of the Internet, the boycott of Turkish goods turned out to be a solution.

    At present, Ankara has begun to realize that further tension in relations with Riyadh will have a disastrous effect on the Turkish economy. Therefore, the Turks need  to make peace. However, the reconciliation could not very successful.

    (The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).

    Image Credit: Turkey Minister of Foreign Affairs

    Share.