By Denis Korkodinov
If a military conflict between Tehran and Washington does occur, it will lead to a blockade of the Persian Gulf for all ships. Such a blockade will trigger a global energy crisis. The United States can neutralize the negative effects of the crisis. But the Ayatollah regime can inflame a series of inter-religious conflicts, which will inevitably affect American interests in the region.
Moreover, in the event of an air strike on Iranian targets by the forces of Israel and Saudi Arabia, Tehran is able to overcome the Iron Dome through its missiles, as a result of which Israel will be unable to continue military operations. A ground operation against Iran through the territory of Syria and Iraq may lead to excessive activity of Hezbollah.
At the same time, the plan of military pressure exerted on Venezuela by Washington may also be questioned, since Hezbollah is very strong in this region and is capable of offering armed resistance to the Americans. Under these conditions, the only mechanism that the United States can use against Tehran is international sanctions that can “kill” the Iranian economy.
Washington and Tehran have repeatedly been on the verge of direct military conflict. However, now the situation between them is really extremely close to an uncontrolled explosion.
The US-Iran conflict began at the turn of 1979-1980, when the so-called Islamic Revolution took place, overthrowing the last Shah of Iran. The transformation of the political field in Tehran led to the fact that representatives of the clergy were in power, who were negatively disposed towards Washington. In turn, such a position of the Ayatollah regime contradicted the interests of Israel and Saudi Arabia, which are key agents of the interests of the United States in the Middle East.
The siege of the US embassy building, the seizure of American citizens as hostages during the revolution in Iran struck Washington’s diplomacy with a painful blow, which predetermined further actions against official Tehran. With each new day, relations between the countries became worse and worse.
Iran is still a party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Meanwhile, in 2003, the IAEA initiated an inspection, using as a pretext information on the implementation of unauthorized nuclear activities by the Ayatollah regime. This was the basis for the introduction of international sanctions against Tehran. In 2015, an agreement was signed with Iran, according to which the Iranian leadership agreed to limit its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.
It is worth noting that the restrictions that Iran was obliged to follow did not apply to the military industry, and, in particular, to the production of missiles capable of reaching the territory of the United States. This gave the Ayatollah regime a definite advantage, allowing it to build up its military power almost unhindered. Realizing that the restrictions imposed by the American administration, in fact, do not allow minimizing the influence of Iran in the world, Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that these restrictions have long been noted because they are ineffective. However, Israel strongly opposed, demanding continued pressure on Tehran.
In 2017, Tel Aviv launched its own investigation, as a result of which it was found that Iran has huge arsenals of guided missiles in Lebanon and Syria. The findings of this investigation should have prompted Washington to put pressure on Lebanon and Syria in order to erase pro-Iranian groups from there.
Meanwhile, in Beirut and Damascus, the dominant force is still Iran, which relies on Hezbollah, Russian aid and support from Bashar al-Assad. Under these conditions, Tehran’s positions in the region are virtually invulnerable, which causes extreme irritation in Israel and the United States.
In the end, under pressure from his international allies, Donald Trump in 2018 announced that Washington was withdrawing from a nuclear deal with Iran. In this regard, additional sanctions were imposed on Tehran, which forced members of the international community doing business with the Ayatollah regime to look for alternative ways out of the energy crisis.
As a measure of pressure, Washington declared the “IRGC” a terrorist organization. In turn, this caused a backlash from Iran, which declared the US armed forces to be a terrorist organization, including those located in Qatar territory. Continuing to develop the conflict, Donald Trump noted freedom of action for eight countries that continue to trade with Tehran. Such a policy was not long in coming, and in May of 2019 Iran officially announced that it intends to begin enriching uranium above the allowed 3.67 percent. In essence, this means that the ayatollah regime is ready to begin producing nuclear weapons.
With regard to Iran, the scenario of total war, involving the conduct of any ground operations on its territory, is excluded. In this case, the aircraft carrier group of the US Armed Forces, concentrated in the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean, may be the main striking force. In turn, the strengthening of the American contingent of troops in Iraq, Syria and Saudi Arabia, where Tehran is expected to increase its influence, is likely.
The success of military operations, in this case, is unlikely, since Iran can put under the gun about 5.5 million people and reach the mainland of the United States with their missiles. In combination with this, the Ayatollah regime, as already mentioned, can provoke inter-religious conflicts that are unlikely to be easily resolved.
Thus, a war with Iran is a matter that can be launched at any time, but which is more than likely to be uncontrollable, with the result that the entire international community could suffer.
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)