By Javad Pasandideh
The resumption of hostilities in the Nagorno-Karabakh region represents a historical continuity of the dispute between the parties to the conflict.
Taking into account the history of Nagorno-Karabakh, it can be recognized that the elements of the crisis and the factors of the military conflict in this region are not simply tied to internal roots. The presence and intervention of regional and supra-regional powers, especially after the collapse of the Soviet Union, has meant that not only national actors, but also external forces, have had their positive and negative effects on the formation and intensification of the crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh. The causes of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, and its solution, depend on several variables, the identification and study of each of these is necessary for a deep understanding of the issue.
Historical background of the crisis
In general, there are several internal and external causes and factors that gave rise and historical continuity to the Karabakh conflict.
It should be noted that the battle over the Karabakh region between the Azerbaijani and Armenian sides dates back decades and even centuries ago. After the fall of the Russian Tsarist Empire, and the rise to power of the Bolsheviks in Russia, for a period of time a joint tripartite government of the countries of the South Caucasus was established, for the first time, in the form of a confederation composed of representatives of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia. The short period of independence of each of these countries, in the form of independent national governments, ends with the reoccupation of these countries by the Soviet Russia.
It is also necessary to take into account other historical factors, such as the events of March 1917 in Baku, known as the revenge of the Armenians for the massacre of Azerbaijani Muslims in the city and retaliation for the cooperation of the Azeris with the Ottoman forces in the killing and persecution of Armenians in eastern Anatolia and the Caucasus, chauvinism by some Armenians, with their claims of the revival of ancient Armenia, and the emergence of self-built national identities, such as the Turkish nation of Azerbaijan influenced from the views of the Pan-Turkmen school.
Furthermore, colonial borders drawn in the Stalin era is another factor that institutionalized, instead of resolving, the conflict. The attribution of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, with a majority of the Armenian population, to the territory of the Soviet Socialist Republic of Azerbaijan, did not resolve the conflict, but made it chronic. The massacre of Armenians by the Azeris in Sumgait in 1988, amidst the indifference of the Soviet government, led to the repetition of other bloody events in the years following independence, such as the massacre of the inhabitants of the villages of Khujaly by the Armenian army.
External factors: regional and trans-regional actors
It should also be noted that the interventionist role of some regional and supra-regional governments in the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute was a factor that fueled the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, rather than stopping the war and urging the parties to establish peace.
While the Minsk Group and international institutions, despite their efforts to make peace and not to resume the conflict, have failed to bring the two countries to a common understanding and a final solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The lack of flexibility on both sides has led each of them to resume the war in the region under various pretexts. This raises concerns about Nagorno-Karabakh’s prospects over the years.
On the other hand, the destructive presence of some foreign governments, such as Turkey, which provides full military support to the Republic of Azerbaijan, has increased the risk of military intervention by other regional actors such as Russia. The Karabakh region thus risks becoming a military arena for powerful neighboring countries.The news from the Ministry of Defense of Armenia on the destruction of the Sukhoi-25 fighter of the Armenian Air Force by the F-16 fighter of the Turkish army and the deployment of some Syrian militias supported by Ankara in Karabakh, testifies to the destructive action of the government Turkish in supporting Baku.
However, some countries, such as Iran, have taken a different approach, attempting to persuade the parties to establish a ceasefire, offering their mediating presence in resolving the conflict. While Russia, which still considers the South Caucasus region as part of its immediate external zone of influence, has called on the two sides for a ceasefire, and sent auxiliary weapons to Armenia, in response to the Turkish intervention.
Perspective
In general, it must be recognized that there is still a long way to go before a global agreement and peace treaty can be reached between the two countries. Even with an effective ceasefire, the Nagorno-Karabakh sovereignty disputes, given the historical and geopolitical characteristics that exist, will still have the potential to turn into a renewed conflict between the two countries and even involve various regional and international powers.
Due to the Karabakh region’s proximity to other regional crisis centers, such as the North Caucasus and Chechnya, as well as the destructive interventions of some neighbors, such as the Turkish government, there is a possibility that the crisis will spread also to neighboring countries. Therefore, according to some experts, as well as political officials, such as Armenian President Armen Sarkissan, the continuation of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, and military intervention of external actors, gives the region the prospect of turning into a crisis such as the war in Syria.
Author: Javad Pasandideh (Eurasian expert and analyst.Teheran, Iran).
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)
Image Credit: MoD of Azerbaijan