By Saamia Jahangir
The past few decades have witnessed a revolutionary changes in the geo-political alliances of the Middle Eastern political map.
The region which is the focal point of warring parties and weapon trade in the 21st century has been undergoing astonishing shifts and turns in terms of military deals and global strategic partnerships amid the ongoing Cold War scenario between Saudi Arab and Iran and the Palestine-Israel conflict for territorial legitimacy.
The recent ‘Abraham Accord’ between Israel and UAE have highlighted the shifting sentiments and rapidly changing narratives in the geo-political chessboard of Middle Eastern region, thus, imploring further investigation into the underlying patterns and socio-economic undertones. UAE has recently opened a revolutionary avenue of diplomatic cordiality with Israel by signing the well-known UAE-Israel peace deal, dubbed as the ’Abraham Accord.’ Although several of the Muslim countries have ties with the State of Israel already, what makes this treaty the center of global attention is the fact that UAE is only the third Arab country to do so, with Egypt and Jordon being the 1st and 2nd respectively in 1979 and 1994.
As of today, there are a number of conflicts going on in the Middle Eastern region. The prominent tussle is the Iran-Saudi Arabia conundrum, however, there is another issue that has been causing deaths and injury within the Middle Eastern region for over half a century, i.e. the Palestinian Crisis. This crisis has to two states competing for attaining territorial sovereignty for the land of Palestine. Beginning in the mid-20th Century, this conflict is the blood-soaked tale of Palestinians being snatched the right to reside in their own ancestral homeland on account of the Jewish claim of territorial legitimacy and ownership for the land their ancestors once occupied. The ongoing tussle is a dispute of claim for Gaza and the West Bank. Although Israel has reconciled, to some extent, with other stake holders like Egypt and Jordon, the conflict between Palestinian State and the State of Israel seems to be quite prolonged and deeply troubling.
Shifting Alliances and Altering Geo-Political Mapping of Middle East:
Amidst this chaos of conflicts and tussles for the land of Palestine, one of the major stake holders are the Arab countries. Previously, the Arab States have had a very stern pro-Palestine narrative on account of the historical affinity between Muslim states and the general Pan-Arabian sentiment that ensued. However, in recent times, economic as well as geo-strategic concerns have resulted in a shift of alliances within the Middle Eastern political map.
Although the diplomatic meetings between Israel and UAE have been going on for years, the fact that the countries were able to reach this agreement at this point in time when Jerusalem has an official US embassy, and when Muhammad bin Salman Saudi Arabia has openly narrated his cordial sentiments for the right of Jews to have a nation-state of their own, show that the agreement is more than just another deal of normalization of diplomatic ties between two nation-states. In fact, this deal is a reflection of the changing ties of geo-political alliances and counter alliances that the Middle Eastern region is witnessing in the contemporary age.
After the Abraham accord was announced, rumors began of a possible “Arab NATO plus Israel” alliance forming between unlikely friends against the common threat of Iran. Right after the deal was announced, Saudi Arab jumped into the picture, announcing that for the regime, peace with Palestinians is the only road for Israel to normalize diplomatic ties with the kingdom. However, despite the absence of official acknowledgement, it is quite evident that Saudi Arab is very much a part of the NATO-Israel-UAE club already. For instance, back in April, 2018, the Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman states that Israel has a right to territorial legitimacy within the land of Palestine. He said, while talking to Jeffrey Goldberg of The Atlantic:
I believe that each people, anywhere, has a right to live in their peaceful nation. I believe the Palestinians and the Israelis have the right to have their own land.
Therefore, in view of the ongoing geo-political reshuffling, analysists and policy critics are predicting a major shift in the overall alliance pattern in the Middle East. Prof. Eytan Gilboa, a senior research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, a renowned Israeli think tank, states; “The plan is to expand the collaboration not just with the United Arab Emirates but also with Bahrain, Oman. Maybe then the next phase would be Saudi Arabia. Maybe Morocco.” In view of the fact that right after the Abraham accord was announced, Bahrain follows UAE to normalize diplomatic ties with the State of Israel shows that there is some truth to the shifting sides of the Middle Eastern chess board.
The Other Side of the Alliance:
While the Arab States have begun to normalize their relationship, the State of Palestine watches in despair and disappointment. Right after the Abraham Accord was announced, the Palestinian public as well as the leadership responded with rejection and criticism. All Palestinian factions, either Hamas or Islamic Jihad, denounced the UAE-Israel agreement, declaring it as a stab in the back. Former PA minister Munib al-Masri expressed his dismay in the following words:
I never imagined that in my lifetime I would see the day in which the UAE would simply sell the Palestinians out for the sake of normalization. It is very shameful. I can’t believe it until now.
PA officials and Hamas also issued declaration of rejection for the UAE-Israel deal, calling it shocking and just another stunt by the Trump-Israel alliance to enforce the ‘deal of the century’ that is purposed to liquidate Palestinian national legitimate rights of statehood. Although according to the UAE officials, the deal is mainly focused on making sure that Israel does not annex forcefully any more territory of Palestine, PA and the general population see little truth in that narrative, as news has been circulating of UAE’s interests in Israel for economic, strategic as well as intelligence purposes.
There are several Muslim countries who, despite massive prospects of economic benefits, refuse to recognize Israel as a legitimate state on account of the forceful exodus of Palestinians and resettlement of Jews in Palestine. The most prominent country in this regard is the Islamic Republic of Pakistan which issued a statement in favor of the Palestinian cause as soon as the changing tides of alliances in Arab world became apparent. Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan said:
Quaid-i-Azam (founding father) had said in 1948 that Pakistan could not recognize Israel unless it gave freedom to Palestinians. If we recognize Israel and ignore the tyranny faced by Palestinians, we will have to give up the cause of Kashmir as well, and this we cannot do.
Palestinian Authority welcomed Pakistan’s support for their independence movement, stating; “Palestinians consider Pakistan as our second homeland and Pakistanis as our dearest brothers, who always supported Palestine on every forum of the world.” Moreover, there are several Arab states which stand alongside the Palestinians for their cause. As of 11 September 2020, thirty UN member states do not recognize Israel as a legitimate Nation-State. They include 16 of the 22 members of the Arab League: Algeria, Comoros, Djibouti, Iraq, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia and Yemen. However, the alliance reconstruction of the Arab world have also put their loyalty to the Palestinian cause in doubt.
Role of USA in the Changing Tides:
Ever since the Trump Administration took office, the pro-Israel policies of Washington have been quite apparent. From Donald Trump shifting the US Embassy to Jerusalem to his son-in-law Jared Kushner crafting a pro-Israel ‘Middle Eastern peace plan’, every move of the Trump Administration has had an evident favoritism for Israel. In fact, as the current alliance shifting began to unfold, Trump was seen not only hosting the signing if the Abraham Accord but also being the first one to welcome Bahrain’s announcement to follow suit. Therefore, one can consider United States as the main propagator of the changing tides of regional alliances and counter alliances in the Middles East.
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)
Image Credit: AFP