By Punsarani Jayawardhana
The hostile Sino- Indian relations have always been creating a conundrum among India’s neighbors in terms of maintaining balanced relations with both the regional powers.
This has ever been a mounting challenge for the small powers surrounding India and being entrapped in China’s economic assistance for their infrastructure development. With the alarming fight that was broken out between Indian and Chinese troops at Galwan Valley and Pangong Tso Lake in the Line of Actual Control on 15th of June, the bitterness between the two countries and its spillover effect in the South Asian region is quite felt and seen.
In this exploration as to the quiet unobtrusive puzzle faced by the small neighbors of India, it is arguable if Hedging and Finlandization would be the best strategy that these small powers may adopt, in order to strike this arduous balance of maintaining good heart with both the regional powers.
The outbreak on June 15th can be seen as an eruption of the tensed relations that have been bottled up between the two nations in terms of their respective hostile and competitive tit for tats initiated by both the parties during last few years. Beijing has been frustrated with Modi’s decision to strip the states of Jammu and Kashmir of its special states and to deploy troops to the region.
On the other hand, China being the longtime ally of India’s sworn enemy of Pakistan has made India worry considerably about its activities involving Pakistan. For instance, as Grossman notes the potential establishment of naval facilities at Gwadar and how it might get connected to other Chinese ports or naval bases in the Indian Ocean creates a security dilemma to India added to the hostility it is already encircled by its neighbors. Moreover, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has its infrastructure projects traversing the disputed area between China and India; aggravating India’s feelings of insecurity.
In 2019 September, Chinese President Xi Jingping reiterated China’s solidarity with Pakistan safeguarding its territorial sovereignty, independence and security. This was coupled with Pakistan’s pledge to be committed for One China Policy and the understanding of the need to uphold international law and basic norms of non-interference in internal affairs of other countries.
It seems to be that Pakistan and China has been working together in order to entrust their own security and political interests in the global atmosphere employing this pledge of alignment. Pakistan hardly being critical of China’s infamous discrimination against Uighur Muslim community in Xingjian, while China has been wielding its veto power at the UN Security Council to prevent sanctioning of Massod Azhar, the leader of Pakistani based militant group Jaish e Mohomed until relenting last time. This needless to say is endangering India’s foot print in the region in terms of both national security and national political interests.
Along with being an ally with Pakistan, China’s strategy to encircle the rest of South Asia is vividly seen looking at its economic ties especially with countries like Bangladesh, Sri Lanka. In July 2019, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and the Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina stated in a joint communique that the two sides shared the view that the BRI offers a model of international cooperation for all the participants and provides new opportunities for regional connectivity and economic integration. Yet, with their deepening ties, defense cooperation has also come into their purview as they pledged on ameliorating collaboration on defense industry, equipment and technology, mutual visits of navy ships as well.
Traces of this endeavor can also be seen to be transcending to China- Sri Lanka cooperation. The massive infrastructure development projects China has started in the island have always been tickling suspense in Indian leadership owing to geo-strategical and cultural significance of Indo- Sri Lanka relationship. With Hambantota port, Port city and various other projects, concerns on Chinese debt trap have persistently been agitating both national and regional politics. On the other hand, China- Maldives rapport is almost exclusively focused on leveraging Belt Road Initiative (BRI) with the untold but obvious pursuit of China thrusting its influence on Maldivian shoes to counter India.
The construction of the Himalayan Multi-Dimensional Connectivity Network through connectivity project; ports, highways, railways, aviation and communication, can be seen as leverages to ever growing China-Nepal economic alliance. This, no doubt being a catalyst to the growing animosity between Nepal and India on territorial boundaries and with the latest being the allegation as to the ‘correct nationality’ of Prince Siddhartha who is the founder of Buddhist philosophy after attaining Buddhahood.
Bhutan and Nepal both sharing borders with China and India, have been able to strike balance between the two power rivalries. As Sarah Zheng notes, this balance is not without a security paradigm highly dependent on India. But recently it seems to be that it has been transposed China in a bid of reaping economic benefits.
This shift which can unobtrusively be seen in almost all India’s neighbors cannot be exclusively entrusted on China’s strategies with OBOR and other infrastructure projects launched in these countries. Modi’s policy towards his neighbors has been criticized as a catalyst to this shift both in academia and in political settings. As Ganguly observes, India’s relations with each of its neighbors are in ‘shambles. If Modi’s ‘Neighborhood First’ initiative ever came into realization, it would have been a spur to regional trade and investments which the South Asian region is in dire need of.
Instead, he went almost to a war with Pakistan in 2019 and ties with Bangladesh started to be a mare’s nest. To make things worse, Nepal just approved a new map including a territory claimed by India as well and being a landlocked state, turned to China to reduce its dependence on India. Afghanistan has also begun to be swayed to Chinese wings with its support to counter terrorism operations. This is needless to say is to prevent its spilling over Chinese Xi Jiang province. The Chinese orbit of influence has been ubiquitous in Sri Lanka and Maldives economies for nearly a decade, drifting them both far away from any potential alignment with India.
Thus it is far from doubt that India’s hostility towards the neighbors played a crucial role in creating a vacuum in the regional integration headed by its regional power potentials and that China took the most of this scenario with its economic might being the ‘carrots’ for these developing small powers in South Asia. Professor Jiadong observes that ‘ as long as there is Balance of Power between China and India, there will be space for these South Asian countries and they will not be forced to choose…..but it is not true that they would no longer welcome China if Sino- Indian relations worsen”.
This observation is not untrue given the Chinese thrust in the shores of these small powers, especially in terms of Chinese role in their trade and economy. Nevertheless, for the moment they seem to be valuing relations with both nations. As for Nepalese stance on the recent outbreak of China and India, the Minister of Foreign Affairs stated that Kathmandu was confident that the friendly neighbors India and China would be able to resolve their differences peacefully. Adding to the value these small powers align on a balanced relationship with both states, Asanga Abeygoonesekara; former Director of Institute of National Security Studies of Sri Lanka expound on the impact on Sri Lanka after the dispute which has the potential of leading into a trade conflict.
He asserts that the conflict will only dwindle Sri Lanka’s strategic space jeopardizing its wishes to maintain close economic ties with both countries. In this light of illustration pertaining to seen and unseen ties that the small neighbors of India are ‘destined with’ in terms of their collaboration with the rival powers of India and China, the quandary they have to face with can well be apprehended.
Yet, the reality is that India is the regional power and hardly anything is possible to convert that. Depending on China entirely to shield against India would never be a better option for these small powers. All in all, India remains to be their largest trade partner to the day, to say but the just one of many pivotal roles India has with each of these states.
Thus, there would be no harm if the rest of South Asia aligned itself to a policy of Hedging in which they may engage in with both power rivalries while also including elements of confrontation, given the need of the hour. They need to understand the perks of molding their policy to a more Finlandized trace of balance and non-antagonism against these two powers, as they must well comprehend their limitations being smaller powers sharing borders and with ever-present cultural and economic ties with India.
Author: Punsarani Jayawardhana L.L.B.(Hons)(UoL), B.A. (International Relations)(Hons)(UoC), Attorneys-at-Law(reading)(Sri Lanka Law College)
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)