India became independent on 15th August 1947, after a 200 year long British rule and the first general election took place in 1951-52. The first ‘Lok Sabha’ (Lower house of India’s bicameral parliament) was formed and Jawaharlal Nehru of Indian National Congress (INC) was elected as the first Prime Minister of India. Till now, total 16 Lok Sabha (the house of people) elections have taken place and INC has won 11 of them.
However, in the latest election of 2014, Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP)-led ‘National democratic Alliance’ (NDA) won the majority and formed the government for next five years. In a series of three, this article will focus on the system of Indian election, why did the previous government lose confidence and standings of the current government.
According to the Indian constitution, Lok Sabha elections generally take place every five years, if not dissolved by The President in case the government loses confidence of the house and if no alternate is available. The country has been divided into 543 Parliamentary Constituencies, each of which returns one MP to the Lok Sabha. The Indian Parliament consists of the President and two legislative councils- the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha (Council of States). The President, being the head of state, appoints the Prime Minister, who runs the government. The entire election process is governed by ‘The Election Commission’- an independent authority which is responsible for political mobilisation and management of organisational complexity of 70billion voters, fairly conducting and announcing the results of an election.
In 2014 the INC-led ‘United Progressive Alliance’ (UPA) took an unprecedented win over the BJP-led NDA (1999-2004) and formed the government with aid of the left front. Five years later, the Congress again came into power though their seats have decreased significantly. However, the last five years of the UPA government was a terribly unpopular incumbent. It engendered a sick economy, massive corruption scandals, lack of decision making bodies and thus was swept away with the blow of a crusading, charismatic opposition leader (BJP) Mr. Narendra Modi in 2014 general election. Congress only managed 48/543 seats.
There are several factors for which 70million Indian voters have rejected Congress and barged with BJP, especially Modi. The rapid growth of economy (+8%) during 1999-2004, plummeted below 5% during the UPA tenure whereas inflation rocketed to more than 10%. But Modi’s panacea of improving the economy, showcasing Gujarat (Modi-led state for 12 years) model, resonated with an electorate aching for change and ascendant mobility. Moreover, Indian voters were exasperated with enduring corruption culture of the UPA government officials that embroiled huge scandals, like- 2G spectrum, Coal-block auctions, commonwealth games etc. On the other hand, Modi’s unscathed reputation influenced the voters for a corruption free government. Furthermore, while unemployment was augmenting during UPA-II, Modi’s vision of economic development appeared to be of paramount importance to the voters who were seeking jobs.
In current scenario, the BJP and Modi government are likely to face a tough challenge from their main opposition Congress and if any major coalition is formed among the other parties, along with Congress. Before coming to power, PM Narendra Modi promised about: a corruption-free administration, a comprehensive India, clean governance, 1crore new jobs per year and rising farm incomes by 2022.
However, all those seem to be a distant dream. Game-changing economic reformation policies, such as Goods and Service Tax implementation, Demonetization, make in India, Digital India, Smart Cities- mostly were either colossal failures or have multiple loopholes that have been exposed publicly. There were hardly any major FDI, big infrastructural development or new industry that has build up during this four years that can attract significant jobs; In fact, thousands of people lost their jobs during the demonetization period and the agrarian class is still reeling from it.
Moreover, the government is now being severely being alleged for the ‘Rafale Deal’ between India and France to buy 36 Rafale fighter jets in Rs. 60000Cr. The controversy is being fuelled due to government’s attitude to keep silent about the allegations and not disclosing the truth of the allegations regarding the deal. This is further bolstered by recent claim of France’s ex-PM François Hollande that the Indian government pushed the French government to build a deal between business tycoons Anil Ambani led Reliance Defence Industries and Dassault- the Rafale maker. The Modi government is also on trigger about economic downturn, agrarian distress, Dalit atrocities, right-wing aggression, women’s safety etc. Nonetheless, this government seems to be saddled with some cheerleading media persons who are creating a deafening affect at an echo chamber.
The current NDA government has two more major problems: Besides, among the 47, many of its allies, such as Shiv Sena, BJD are frustrated and openly condemning the BJP’s attitude and policies on various issues; some even left the ally, such as TDP. On the other hand, Congress is trying to form a major coalition with regional parties like TMC, BSP, SP, DMK etc.
If the Modi brigade still thinks BJP as a centripetal force in Indian politics, they should remember that regional parties do play a significant role while deciding the alliance and central government formation. Formation of a major alliance against NDA, the continuous tirades of opposition leader Rahul Gandhi and declarations of some regional parties that their primary goal is to prevent the BJP from coming to power rather than harbouring individual ambitions, may shake NDA’s building pillars and NDA might have seat in the opposition bench again as they did a decade ago.
Image Credit: Flicker/LaurieJones