By Denis Korkodinov
On April 25, 2020, the Southern Transitional Council, led by Idarous al-Zubayidi, declared a state of emergency in the city of Aden and in all the southern provinces of Yemen. In accordance with this decision, the Yemen government in exile of Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi has been officially removed from the management of the territories of southern Yemen.
The main reason for the imposition of a state of emergency was the failure of the exiled government to fulfill the terms of the Riyadh agreement, under which southerners should receive significant privileges to form a national cabinet.
It is worth noting that the armed formations of the Southern Transitional Council and Mansour Hadi, with the support of Saudi Arabia, have been able to achieve some success in the cities of Aden and in the provinces of Lahj and Al-Dali in August 2019 Under the terms of the Riyadh agreement, the management of the southern territories was to be carried out jointly by the forces of the South and the “government in exile”.
As a bonus, the Southern Transitional Council received the right to constitutional reform and guarantees of military, financial and political assistance from Mansur Hadi, the internationally recognized president of Yemen. However, the Mansur Hadi government was unable to guarantee compliance with the terms of the agreements reached.
As a consequence, the Southern Transition Council expelled representatives of the Mansur Hadi government from Aden and armed clashes began between the forces of the Southern Transitional Council and Abd Rabbah Mansur Hadi in the province of Abyan, Shakra and Aden.
Saudi Arabia has formally declared its non-intervention in the conflict, despite the fact that the kingdom has assumed an obligation to guarantee compliance with the Riyadh agreement. As a result, the Southern Transitional Council had to rely on its capabilities to resist pressure from the Yemen army. Hence, steps were taken to disorganize government forces in Jazir and on the island of Socotra.
Thanks to this, two battalions of the marine corps crossed the side of Idarus al-Zubaydi, thus significantly strengthening the southern coast. Achieving this success was facilitated, inter alia, by support from the United Arab Emirates, which openly supported the Southern Transition Council. In response, Saudi Arabia attempted to recruit Al-Amalik Brigade Commander Hamdi Shukri al-Subaihi, who controls Ras al-Arah and the El Sabiha coast, to block the transition council from south to north and west from province of Abyan. In addition, Riyadh has started negotiations with the president of the Southern National Assembly, Major General Ahmed Saeed bin Brik.
Al-Subaihi tribal forces in the Lahj governorate currently have full control of the coastal route between Lahj and Aden, trying to prevent the spread of COVID-19. This route is known as the smuggling route that is used to transport African drugs, cigarettes and migrants.
Following Saudi Arabia’s actions in January 2020, Major General Ahmed Saeed bin Brik attempted to organize a military coup in southern Yemen, saying he had his own plan to manage the state. However, local tribes did not support him, as a result of which Riyad’s efforts to put pressure on the Southern Transition Council failed. In the meantime, after this attack on the southern position by the “government in exile” and the armed forces of Saudi Arabia have intensified. This situation required decisive resistance measures in the form of a state of emergency and self-government in and around Aden.
In terms of political development, the announcement of self-government in the south represents a very tangible blow to the image of the Mansour Hadi. Therefore, the Southern Transitional Council effectively removed the territories of Aden, Lahj, Al-Dali, Shabwa, Abyan, Hadramaut and Al-Mahra from the authority of the President of Yemen in exile.
Furthermore, southerners have significantly strengthened their influence in the provinces of Marib, Taiz, Hodeida, Al-Baida, Al-Jawf and on the island of Socotra, in relation to which over 80% of the southern territory has fallen under control of the government of Idarus al-Zubaidi, which largely organized the process of separating southern Yemen from the north.
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)
Image Credit: AFP